Saturday 9 July 2016

The biggest risks to the UK economy

The Telegraph website (6 July) proclaims the 5 biggest risks to the UK economy are:
1. household indebtedness. Although down from its pre-crisis peak of 150% of disposable income to around 132%, the Bank of England has warned that the ratio is still high by historical standards. Good job interest rates ain't going anywhere then, as I can't see the Bank putting up rates to defend sterling while there is a risk of recession. The fear is increasing unemployment. And apparently, in response to a target that no more than 15% of mortgages are at more than 4.5 times annual salary, guess what? Yup, loads are being granted at just under 4.5 times. It's supposed to be a limit, not a target!
2. Commercial property. The FPC warned that trends in this market could hit activity in the real economy because many companies use commercial real estate as collateral to access finance. The Bank noted that in tougher times “companies may be unable either to refinance existing debt or to borrow to invest in new productive opportunities”.
3.The Current Account deficit. I've already mentioned this one but, at 6.9% of GDP, it's close to record levels. The size of the deficit means its financing relies on “continuing material inflows” of foreign direct investment. According to the Bank, overseas companies account for roughly half of UK commercial real estate transactions since 2013, making this sector “particularly vulnerable to a change in investor preferences”.
4.The Global Economy. The Bank is concerned that a stronger dollar will cause trouble in emerging markets. It noted that non-financial corporates in emerging economies had close to $1 trillion of outstanding dollar-denominated debt securities.
5. Fragile markets. The FPC said a “sustained” period of illiquidity could result in “a loss of confidence in financial markets’ ability to support funding to the real economy or facilitate the transfer of risks”, making it tougher for UK companies to borrow.

Not much to lose sleep about there then! Some Remainers argued that they would really like to leave but the world economy was still too fragile post credit crunch. Basically the "make me righteous but not yet" argument. While I was (and am) concrned about the impact of transition, I tended to think this particular argument was a cop out. But it could be a bumpy ride.

The full article is at http://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/here-are-the-five-biggest-risks-facing-the-uk-economy/ar-AAi8GAB?li=AA54rU&ocid=spartandhp#page=2

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