Thursday 17 January 2019

Brexit impasse

So, as expected, Theresa May's deal was heavily voted down in the Commons. And, as expected, the resulting no confidence motion failed. After all turkeys (i.e. the Tories and the DUP) don't vote for Christmas. So, where do all these conniptions (thank you Alex Brummer, City Editor of the Daily Mail for that word which means 'fit of hysterics') leave us? The Speaker, after breaking with normal procedure and allowing amendments on the government motion to be tabled, did not call any of them. Eh? (He must have thought if he did it would make life easier for the government, I suppose). Whatever the reason we are none the wiser about what, if anything, could command a majority. But I think I can hazard a guess - nothing does.

Many commentators - and perhaps the financial markets given the behaviour of sterling in the aftermath of the vote - seem to think that this heralds a softer Brexit. I can't imagine why. Having lost by 230, May has to turn around at least 116 MPs, let's say 120 to get a guaranteed majority. Where are they going to come from?

That's nearly half of the 256 Labour MPs in the House, so it's unlikely to happen without party support. As Labour seem determined to sit on the fence, try to force a general election and blame the government for whatever happens or doesn't happen, I think real co-operation between the big parties is very unlikely, especially after Jeremy Corbyn's churlish refusal to take up the offer of a meeting.

For what it's worth I think May is right and Corbyn is wrong on the issue of ruling out no deal at this stage. While the EU is unlikely to concede much, it does not want no deal. I'm not entirely with David Davis when he says that we were always going to have to take it to the wire to get the EU to play ball, but it seems absolutely wrong to limit our negotiating position by ruling out no deal now, even if it's really not where we want to end up. And especially since, according to Wolfgang Munchau* the EU always expected there would be a deal and really isn't prepared for no deal. After all, it's what happens in the EU: there's always a deal at the end of the day.

Munchau also notes that, while the EU position has been totally united so far, cracks could now start to show between the 27 countries. While the BBC showed the tweets from Juncker, Tusk and various heads of state and said they showed co-ordination and a common front, Munchau thought it showed the EU was "clearly not prepared for this stand off" and the initial reactions were "all over the place".

Meanwhile, on the Tory side, 118 voted against, of which 16 are Remainers. And there's the 10 DUP MPs. Anything which would appeal to the hardline Tory Brexiteers won't appeal to Clarke, Soubry and Grieve. So if May goes towards a harder Brexit that's still only 102 of the 116 she needs; 112 if she also turns round the DUP.

So the numbers don't easily add up but it seems more likely to me that May would tack towards her Brexiteers than towards a softer plan B. After all, softening her approach will increase Tory divisions, not reduce them - and the whole "process" has been about keeping the Tory party together. Some commentators see portents of the end of the Conservative party as we know it. But it hasn't been the most successful political force in the world over the last 200 years without knowing how to stick it out.

I expect May will try to get more out of Brussels on the Irish issues. Not just the backstop - though the clarifications she got seemed worthwhile, they could be much more definite. But it's important to remember the DUP don't like the way Northern Ireland is treated differently from the mainland in the backstop. The differences seem small to us but these are matters of principle. I've always thought that, if May could get the DUP onside most of her Brexiteers will follow. But she may need to get some more red meat for them, even if it's in what the Political Declaration says about the future trade agreement.

It's not clear all that would be enough to get her over the line, but it would then need only a few more Labour waverers. 3 Labour MPs voted for the deal this week, she might get the handful more needed to get there.

And if not? Then reluctantly I suppose, if Parliament really cannot deliver on its promise, it's back to the people. It's not clear that there would be a majority in the House for including Remain on the ballot paper, or indeed any agreement on the question. But the likeliest way to get agreement from MPs would be to remind them that they agreed to the original referendum by a large majority, that it was entirely premised on the vote being accepted and acted on and that they agreed to Article 50 being triggered by a large majority. So the only logical question is to ask which Brexit option.

But I accept that, if Remain were to be on the ballot paper, Brexit could well be overturned. Danny Finkelstein wrote persuasively yesterday** that, while he had voted Remain but had accepted the referendum result meant that we should leave, his patience was being tried by the hardline Brexiteers. He said that, just as psychological experiments had recorded in other groups, the Brexiteers have talked themselves into an ever harder position and now reject out of hand solutions that they canvassed as acceptable a few short years ago. Like Norway. (Which isn't acceptable by the way, at least not as a long term solution, see my post of 18 December). So, if the Brexiteers won't go for May's pragmatic compromise, why should he hold to leave when he didn't vote for it?

It's a persuasive argument and one that, as an extremely reluctant, nose-holding remain voter who thinks we voted to leave so we should leave whatever,  I am struggling to rebut.


* EuroIntelligence blog 16 January
** Finkelstein's excellent column was in the Times on 16 January


1 comment:

  1. 'Labour seem determined to sit on the fence, try to force a general election and blame the government for whatever happens or doesn't happen' You succinctly sum up Labour's position Phil. We may not agree much over Brexit but this is where we do see eye to eye. Weirdly, a supposed left wing Labour party are backing a right wing project in Brexit, the political world really has been turned upside down. Still the Lib Dems are talking a lot of sense I hear......

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