Brexit - the crunch?

So now we see the shabby machinations by which MPs will try to over-ride the will of the people and thwart Brexit, aided and abetted by a Speaker apparently prepared to set aside centuries of Commons practice to deny the elected government its usual control over the Commons agenda.

It's been clear for some time that the reason Speaker Bercow has hung on in office past his self-imposed retirement deadline was because he saw a role for himself in the Brexit denoument. And also that the Remain-sympathising majority of MPs in Parliament saw fit to keep him there despite the bullying and harassment allegations as they thought he could be useful to them, notwithstanding the fact that, in the MeToo era it seems unbelievable that he was able to survive the smoke that looked and smelt of fire to the rest of us.

This Speaker is the only biased and politically motivated holder of that office in my lifetime. If you don't believe he is biased, as well as far too full of himself, please tell me why, in round one of the Commons Brexit debate in December it took him over an hour to call an MP who had any sympathy for Theresa May's deal. He wanted it to sound as if the whole House was against the deal while the media attention was greatest. I still don't understand why Bercow was retained after the last two General Elections and I think it's a great shame the voters in his constituency didn't get the chance to throw him out as the MPs should have done. For the Speaker of the House to drive a car with a "Bollocks to Brexit" sticker (he says it's his wife's car; well he would wouldn't he?) says it all. Not only biased, he doesn't care who sees it!

But will it work?

May's strategy has depended on the choice being between her deal and no deal. As soon as it becomes a three way (or greater) choice the outcome becomes much less certain. Or does it? The hard deadline of 29 March in the existing legislation will stay in place unless and until different legislation is passed. We already know that there isn't a majority in the Commons for any specific solution. Not even Remain, despite the majority of MPs having originally being in that camp at the time of the referendum.

The House might cop out and decide it can't decide so there should be a second referendum, but what chance they will agree on a question?

The only thing I can currently see them getting a majority for is delay: extending the Article 50 deadline. Which would be pointless as there is no sign that more time would help reach a consensus.

Interestingly, Wolfgang Munchau* reports that the EU could be prepared to go further than issuing clarification outside the Agreement that the notorious Irish backstop is intended to be temporary.  He also thinks that, having opened up the Withdrawal Agreement , even though they had said they wouldn't, the EU might amend the Agreement itself. But there's a sting - only if it is clear what the Commons wants. And a bigger sting - the EU might formalise its informal position that Article 50 could only be extended for the purposes of ratifying a deal approved in principle.

In that case Bercow, Grieve and chums don't have the time they think they have and can't get the control over events they think they can. The only choices available would be to withdraw Article 50 and Remain (possibly with a further referendum promised), or to exit with May's deal or no deal.

So there's a lot of water to flow under bridges quite quickly now. Like just about all commentators I hesitate to predict what will happen between now and 29 March.

But I don't think it's hard to predict what will happen afterwards if Brexit does not go ahead: the political atmosphere will become totally toxic.

If Brexit does not happen in March future voting patterns will be radically different. A serious anti-EU party, not contaminated with extremists (so not UKIP), would immediately become a major electoral player. Such a party would thrive whether or not there is a second referendum. And it would do so even if a second referendum voted to Remain. After all. you don't need 50% of the vote to win a General Election. So expect such a party to campaign on the premise that, if you give us a majority, this time we won't fail. We will use the first 18 months to prepare for exit, then issue Article 50, and we'll have been out for 18 months by the time of the next election. One could easily imagine a lot of people voting for that.

So Bercow, Grieve and even all the King's horses and all the King's men won't make Euro-scepticism go away.

MPs might be able to thwart Brexit. But if they do, they shouldn't expect normality to resume.

P.S. Munchau also notes that the major centre-right German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reports that Germany is woefully under-prepared for a no deal Brexit. The EU has discounted this possibility from the outset, and so has not devoted any serious energy and funding to solving the problem. Germany has only just created financial room for 900 new jobs to deal with extra customs modalities that would be required to handle the massive amount of German exports to the UK. But this is not enough to avoid complete chaos....

P.P.S. The most risible thing I've read about Brexit in the last few days was John Major, advocating a second referendum, insisting that it would be a "definitive decision" by persuading each party leader to make a public statement that the result would be honoured. Er, didn't they do this last time, John?

*Wolfgang Munchau wrote in the FT and in his EuroIntelligence blog on 14