Up the Duff

More on Brexit....

I wrote about David Owen's beguiling idea that we stay in the EEA for a limited transition period by enforcing what he sees as our right to do so, but switching to the EFTA pillar, from the EU pillar (see post of 13 August).

The problem with this for Mrs May isn't just that she didn't think of the idea, but that it leaves the position open for that transition state to become permanent if there is a change of UK government before the transition is completed. Whereas dealing with the transition through the Withrawal Agreement puts a definitive end to the transition state. So it's all about the Tories making sure they "deliver Brexit".

My attention has also been drawn to an analysis of the state of play in the Brexit farce by Andrew Duff, who was a LibDem MEP from 1999 to 2014. His paper, Brexit: Beyond The Transition, was published by European Policy Centre Paper on 21 August*.

The whole paper is well worth reading for an overview of the status of the negotiations and next steps (if you're a sad git did you say?) It's written sympathetically to the Chequered Compromise (as I call it) but among many points that are well argued, three aspects struck me in particular. Firstly, what happens if Parliament rejects any deal negotiated with Barnier:

To date, the debate at Westminster has been curiously disconnected from the reality of the EU talks. Once an Article 50 deal is tabled for scrutiny, however, it should become clear that this is the EU’s final offer. Having laboured hard to deliver two versions of a new settlement for Britain, the rest of the EU is in no mood and in no fit state to devise a third. In 2016 the EU offered David Cameron a deal on continued membership which was rejected in the referendum. If Parliament refuses the EU’s 2019 offer of an association agreement, there will be no going back to the drawing board: Europe has run out of tolerance with the British. If no deal is reached in the Article 50 talks, or if the deal reached is subsequently rejected by the British Parliament, the EU’s contingency plans will be put into operation and it will extricate itself from the UK as best it can on 29 March. Soon afterwards, in any event, normal business will be suspended in Brussels until the new Parliament and Commission is elected and Mr Tusk’s successor takes his place in December. 

I've seen the argument before that any deal will be considered final and not further negotiable by the EU but I hadn't fully digested the point that the EU elections and formation of a new administration inevitably means that not much will happen on the EU front for several months after March.

Secondly, on the "People's Vote" idea:

Advocates of a ‘people’s vote’ have yet to explain what question they wish to put to a referendum. Some want it to decide between the Withdrawal Agreement and no deal. Others want a referendum to choose between no deal and the status quo. Yet others want multiple choice questions. All are deceptive. The first option is not acceptable to Parliament; the second is no longer acceptable to the EU; the third is a joke. In effect, referendum voters would be put in an invidious position. The campaign would not turn on the quality of Mr Barnier’s treaty. The argument on the streets, in fact, would be about nationalism, xenophobia and democratic betrayal. The pound would tank. The fragile UK constitution would be put under further immense strain, with the certainty that parliament at Westminster would again emerge emasculated and its discredited political parties split asunder. The nation would end up even more divided in terms of social class, generation and province, potentially pitching into a revolutionary situation. Instead of toying with populism, it would be better for politicians of all persuasions to shoulder their responsibility for the national interest. Parliament should not veto the Barnier deal. 

Although there are some vocal advocates I also just can't see how a second referendum would come about. And thirdly, how things move forward after that:

Once Brexit is done, Mr Barnier’s Task Force 50 will be disbanded and serious negotiations for the association agreement will commence under new EU management. A general election in Britain no later than May 2022 will determine Britain’s future as a European country. The options will include continuing to develop the association agreement or to apply again to join the European Union as a full member state

Hmm. I don't like the sound of Br-re-entry.... that really would put the cat amongst the pigeons in terms of heightening the tension between remainers and leavers and fomenting despondency and division. Basically, it would leave us up the duff, Andrew.


* http://www.epc.eu/documents/uploads/pub_8720_brexitbeyondthetransition.pdf?doc_id=2043