Thursday 8 June 2017

What would the exit poll mean for our exit?

Wow. What would that mean for Brexit?

The exit poll isn't often bang on for seats though they usually nail the share of the vote - so why don't they quote that at 10pm now? It would allow us to form our own view of the seats prediction - in 1992 I called the Tory win at 10pm on the vote share numbers and went to bed long before Basildon was declared and the pundits started to realise there might not be a hung Parliament . And when they finally gave us the vote share numbers in 2015 it seemed clear to me why the Tories had a majority.

But back to my question. If the exit poll seats were to be right then Tories = Lab + SNP + LibDem so the balance would be held by PC and the Irish. It would be impossible to get a "hard" Brexit through that Commons.

So there would be two winners. Labour and Corbyn would be one, though a modest "win", still miles off forming a government.

The other?  UKIP. No seats and few votes, yes. But when we exit the EU but stay in the single market and customs union, with the concomitant freedom of movement, budget contributions and bowing the knee to the ECJ, UKIP will have a strategic reason to exist once again.

An EU exit in name only might be a good outcome for our economy but one would wonder why be in the EU apart from having any actual representation.

One would also expect internecine war to break out again in the Tory party.

Even if the Tory seats are underestimated at 314 this could still be the outcome.

So the election may prove to have been all about Brexit after all.

The first two results, in safe Labour seats, don't tally with the exit poll. I'm off to bed - the real results will be there in the morning.








1 comment:

  1. I don't know for sure what my reaction would have been if the vote share had been announced at 10pm. But with Labour at over40% I think I would have said "that's going to be close, hung feels right". A final thought on May's hubris - with the planned 2018 boundary changes this vote would have given the Tories a comfortable majority as they are currently penalised by the constituency boundaries

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