Another fine mess

Journalists on The Times are getting ever more upset at the Tories for the Laurel and Hardy-esque situation they have plunged the UK into.

David Smith (14 June, May and Cameron deserve to be castigated for destabilising Britain) refering to 2 economic experiments in 12 months, says two successive Tory PMs have inflicted unnecessary damage and instability on the economy and that Business is entitled to be angry at what their political leaders have thrown at them. He accuses Cameron of apalling mismanagement as he held the referendum sooner than needed without obtaining the concessions he sought and with no white paper. While Whitehall is always told to prepare for any election outcome there was no prep done for Brexit, even though Cameron had said Article 50 would be triggered the next day. As for the gloating George Osborne, having great fun at the worst Tory campaign in living memory, Smith notes that the former chancellor was responsible for the second worst  in recent times, i.e. the Remain campaign. To his earlier list of woes (the Brexit devaluation and downgrading of our sovereign debt rating, the Brexit induced increase in inflation which is driving the Brexit fall in real wages and therefore the economic slowdown) he adds the deterioration in public finances, noting with amazement that Boris Johnson is daft enough to still be associating himself with the mythical £350 million a week bonanza when the reality will be larger budget deficits and rising debt and further concerns about the ratings agencies.

He notes one crumb of comfort for the agencies and markets: that the lack of a Tory majority has increased the prospect of a softer Brexit, perhaps staying in the single market and customs union. Smith debunks that thought brutally, describing it as clutching at straws. He quotes a dude from JP Morgan, an assiduous debunker of Brexit myths, who says out of the EU means out of the customs union (several countries have negotiated agreements but they don't give all the same advantages) and a trade expert Professor from Sussex Uni who says access to the single market is not the same as being in it and is inferior.

As a result, Smith concludes that 'soft Brexit' is hard to define in any meaningful sense and bound to be inferior to EU membership. He also sees no comfort in the expectation of the demise of  'no deal is better than a bad deal' as the clock is ticking and the government fragile. Like me (point 4 in my list of thoughts on 9 June, the day after the election) he worries that the government will collapse during the negotiation and that, unless the 27 countries agree to an extension of the timetable, then no deal is what we will crash out with.

Daniel Finkelstein (14 June) quotes Nobel prize winner Kenneth Arrow's "Impossibility Theorem" which he paraphrased as saying that voting between different options can turn into a mess with no clear and consistent preference emerging. He notes that there may not be a Parliamentary majority for any obvious option and that Labour has set its policy to be able to oppose just about anything and everything. But he thinks this means the only viable option is to stay in the EEA and therefore the single market while we sort out what to do. (Oh, that horrible transition that worried me so much in the run up to the referendum).

Meanwhile Matthew Parris (17 June) is waging a campaign for Theresa May to step down asap. Noting her 'fatal precaution' (er, not in calling the election, hey?) which led to her ducking tv debates and going a bit late to see the Grenfell Tower survivors, he recalled seeing her, years ago, speak to Tory activists in Derby. Her speech was warm, well judged and well received. Then Edwina Currie asked a critical question about May's attitude to the police. The question was "hardly an exocet" but May went to pieces. One surprise question blew her out of the water. So Parris was not surprised by her discomfort with the unscripted. No wonder she has a reputation as a control freak. Parris notes these things go deep in people. They do not change but can be propped up by a good PR machine, a big majority, public ignorance of what they are like:  none of whic May has. "She has quite simply been rumbled, as were - though more slowly - Ted Heath and Gordon Brown." Unless May goes soon, Parris sees her being a John Major figure, doomed to eventual defeat and on the same scale.

Matt Ridley (12 June) is more optimistic and gave 10 reasons to be cheerful (shouldn't that be Ian Dury?) including Corbyn didn't get in, Scotland isn't going independent and increased political engagement of the young is a good thing.  Rose tinted optimist!

The quotation from the 1930 film, Another Fine Mess, is actually "here's another nice mess you've gotten me into". But none of this sounds particularly nice or fine: Smith prefers "almighty mess" and I can't take issue with that.