Thursday 23 June 2016

EU referendum: an apology to younger generations

Time to decide. But should I be able to vote?

Earlier in the referendum campaign it was argued by some that people over a certain age should not have a vote as they wouldn't have to live with the consequences. Well, not for as long, anyway. At that stage, polls were showing a strong majority of the younger voters saying remain and an equally strong majority of older voters saying leave. Subsequent polls showed older voters softening their stance and the inter-generational heat seemed to subside. But a YouGov poll at the end of May had 18-24 year olds at 78% Remain and those 65+ at 68% Leave.

Writing in the Sunday Times (5 June) Niall Ferguson chunked this up to a bigger argument, noting that younger generations around the world are more socialist leaning, as instanced by support for Corbyn and Bernie Sanders. I'm not sure this is really new, mind, but there is more inter-generational tension than there used to be.

Jeremy Clarkson has come out strongly for Remain. One of his arguments was that he feels more at home in European cities than he does in American ones. I must say, I feel the opposite. I enjoy visiting continental cities and Italy in particular is one of my favourite places. However, going to the continent always reinforces for me how different we are. And I've never wanted to live there. In contrast, I've felt at total ease in many American and Canadian cities and I regret I didn't get to live and work in Boston, as once looked very likely. I just don't feel European. Having worked closely with Germans, French, Chinese and Americans, I'm sure we are culturally much closer to the Americans.

However, my summary of the Reasons to Believe (or Remain), weigh heavily with me, especially the transitional shock to the economy that would almost certainly follow a vote to Leave. That transition could easily last 5 years. A non-trivial chunk of my remaining life expectancy.

If I was younger I know I would take a bolder, more optimistic view. But, reliant on a personal pension, I'm taking the short term view. What else do you expect an old fogey to do? If we leave, I expect everything would work out fine in the long run. But that could be decades. By then I could be in my 80s and, if I get there, I might not care or know too much about it.

So I've taken all the emotion out of the decision (including all the Project Fear hyperbole) and I'm going with a hard head and the less risky option.

Prince Feisal, in Lawrence of Arabia, when fretting about placing his troops under European command says "And I must do it because the Turks have European guns. But I fear to do it. Upon my soul I do."

Hopefully we won't be putting our troops under European command anytime soon. But upon my soul I hate myself for voting remain. Chicken? You bet. So apologies to the youngsters who won't have the freedoms generations of Brits have taken for granted. We had our chance to seize those freedoms back. And I helped to blow it, out of selfish, short term concerns.

Of course I could salve my conscience by voting Leave, safe in the expectation that, if the polls are close, Remain will probably win anyway. (53-47 has been my prediction since the start. Looked a bit daft in the early days...). Then I can continue to rail at Brussels, knowing it's not my fault.

Tempting.

1 comment:

  1. Not sure the younger generations would be depriving themselves of many freedoms by pushing the remain vote - it would take years to 'take back' control from the EU if it is a leave vote and then I'm pretty certain things would stay roughly the same. Unless you believe the left wing point that a leave vote will allow a more right wing government to flourish and erode workers and human rights slowly but surely!

    Having spent months agonising about this I'm still in the remain camp. There are so many compelling arguments on both sides but I think for me it came down to economics. I worry about the shock to the economy from a leave vote and if it is for potential growth of a few percentage points of GDP decades down the line I'm not sure it is worth it.

    Keep the status quo, and if the eurozone goes under when spain/Italy/someone else goes broke then I guess we try and get out then!

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