The government was, apparently, surprised by the degree of compliance when we went into lockdown, as it had been a bit sketchy up to then. So how's it going? From my own observations many over 70s I know are determined to go out for their own shopping. Traffic seems very quiet on some occasions and quite busy on others. As well as my own observations, monitoring traffic going over the causeway and bridge towards Conwy from my breakfast table, Democracy Man (aka Tony) has given regular facebook updates on activity in Sefton which he monitors during his government approved exercise (by bike)*. It sounds as if there is more traffic in Sefton, which caused Tony to wonder whether there is more business being undertaken than we thought. One of his followers suggested black market activities, but then (stereotype alert) Sefton is on Merseyside.....
Such spot observations could be misleading - the official stats** show that when we moved to lockdown on 24 March the total volume of traffic fell from around 70% to just below 40%. And there it has pretty well stayed, with dips at the weekends and Easter when it goes down into the 20s before bouncing back to the high 30s when folk who can work do and the rest of us decide we have to go out to shop.
I've been pondering what work is allowed and what isn't. I've heard of people left without a bathroom, the job being stopped after the old one was stripped out. And yet the government advice*** clearly says that work in people's homes can continue, provided social distancing is observed. Friends in the north west have a bomb crater back garden as their landscapers walked off the job when lockdown started. Meanwhile neighbours of ours have had serious landscaping works start last week, with the team not always appearing to my eye to social distance. But then it is a family business so maybe they all live together. Meanwhile a stonemason would be perfectly willing to start work pointing the wall that holds my house and garden up a Welsh hillside, which he could readily do while maintaining much more than two metres distance. Except that he can't get cement because the local builders merchants are closed. The neighbours' landscapers have sourced concrete blocks from Anglesey, 35 miles away.
I'm not sure why many of these decisions are being made by the individual traders. Most builders merchants closed following the PM's 23 March announcement in which he said (I think) that only "essential" businesses should remain open. But that's what he said, the regulations don't say that. Others decided their products were on the government's essential list and have remained open. The government guidance says you can travel to work if you can't work from home and that you can work away from home provided you can social distance and not breach the shielding of vulnerable people.
The guidance is clear that all retail outlets had to close with "notable" exceptions. The list of such exceptions is actually quite long, and includes "hardware shops and equipment, plant and tool hire". I note that it is entirely silent on wholesale businesses. So my assumption is that builders merchants could legally remain open to supply the trade and anyway could argue they supply hardware and equipment.
This leads to an obvious conclusion: Democracy Man is right that there is a lot more "work" that isn't banned than we have realised. But a lot of work that isn't banned has shut down. Is that what the Chancellor wanted I wonder? Either way, it's probably because of what the chancellor did.
Rishi Sunak has had a lot of plaudits for his budget and then his emergency coronavirus measures. It's notable that, just as Alistair Darling's measures (like taking equity in banks and increasing liquidity by quantitative easing) were followed by the US and EU so, pretty well, were Sunak's. It's clear that prompt and radical action was needed and that, in the circumstances, a one size fits all type approach would have to be adopted. There has been criticism that small businesses can't access the aid they were offered and, as with PPE, there seems to be a sheer volume problem of dealing with all the enquiries. But I am uneasy. My concern is that many businesses have decided that it is in their interest to close, rather than because they were told to. Maybe they see advantage in closing and furloughing their staff. In which case there could be more (safe) economic activity than we have at present and less call on the government's purse. Which of course is ultimately our money.
When the time comes to relax the restrictions - I don't expect they'll be totally removed for a long time - it may prove difficult enough for the government to define what is allowed and what isn't without companies gaming the system.
I also have a little voice at the back of my brain saying that one of the great strengths of a market economy is its ability to rapidly move resources to meet demand. Except at the moment some businesses can be tided over and many individuals can get most of their normal income without working. Which means that they don't need to consider alternative opportunities, be that covering for migrant workers who can't travel (so crops may rot in fields) or helping to deliver PPE or other essentials, like all those goods that are being ordered online (haha). There is a massive opportunity cost in keeping people idle even when they can't do their normal job. This can only be done for a very short time or it will be economically destructive.
Many of those goods available on line include things that can't be bought in the shops and so presumably aren't "essential". In terms of shops the official guidance says "basic necessities". Hmm, basic....
For me the public service that has not covered itself in glory during the lockdown is the police. Although pragmatism has ruled for the most part there have been random acts of officiousness, like the PC recorded telling a householder that their child should not play in the (fenced) front garden, through to two officers, shoulder to shoulder (though maybe they live together) telling a hapless sunbather to move with no other person within 50 yards, through to the Derbyshire police shaming dog walkers they've filmed by drone.
Some police forces have seemed determined to get people's backs up. The prize went to the Northamptonshire Chief Constable who suggested that, should people continue to break the rules he might resort to road blocks and searching people's shopping trolleys. Good luck with defining "essential" in a shopping trolley, mate! Which of these items would cause Plod to issue a ticket?
Champagne, whisky, smoked salmon, caviar, a pair of socks or a tin of paint and brushes?
Well, obviously anything you can eat or drink seems to be essential, however non-essential it really is. So all of those things have become "basic necessities". The socks are on sale at Asda supermarkets but not at clothes shops, though of course you can buy online, so I imagine Plod would consider them a basic necessity. The item that could be a problem is the paint and brushes which could get you a fixed penalty. Even though you haven't made an extra journey.
The government and its advisers accept that there are all sorts of health disbenefits from the lockdown, including mental health risks. Doing manual tasks like painting and decorating can be very therapeutic. So if you live in Northamptonshire my advice would be to get a note from your GP, if you can get them to answer, to prescribe painting for your well being. Or use the Rod Liddle defence: take a loaf of bread and a bottle of domestos in with you when shopping for your potentially non-essential booze. Another defence suggested was to say that you came for flour, pasta and alcohol gel handwash and didn't want to waste your journey by going home empty handed.
Mrs H had suggested to me that the police could be doing sterling work right now smashing county lines or trapping paedos by monitoring social media, whereas they seem to be driving around aimlessly looking for something to do. Until last week when we heard a siren from the estate down the hill from our house. On looking out we saw a large police van (you'd call it a riot van if it had the shutters on) which was travelling slowly away from us with its blue light flashing and sounding it's siren every few seconds. Two police officers walked either side in hi viz. Two walked ahead in the type of outfits worn by football mascots or Disneyworld staff. People were pouring out of their houses to see what was going on and leaflets were being handed out. We despaired at what seemed to be a terrifically good way of kiboshing social distancing. Presumably somebody thought this was a good idea. And even if it was a junior officer they got somebody more senior to agree. Good grief....
The government presumably decided that the guidance can only be detailed to a certain extent and beyond that the public have to be trusted to act like grown ups. Which for the most part they have. Police acting as children's entertainers doesn't qualify as grown up for me and certainly not essential.
* more substantial musings appear on his always fascinating blog at https://tonyrobertson.mycouncillor.org.uk/
** The daily COBR slides can be found on gov.uk
*** https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/latest-information-on-novel-coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/ The (English) government advice on which businesses can remain open is at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/further-businesses-and-premises-to-close/further-businesses-and-premises-to-close-guidance
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