It's clear the UK led the world in pandemic planning - at least we did 10 years ago. One adviser to Singapore noted that their plan had been based almost entirely on the UK's plan. The difference was it had been implemented.
But ours had been implemented too: Alan Johnson, Secretary of State for Health 2007-9, noted that the WHO described our preparations as "amongst the best in the world" at that time. Mind, one of the points praised was the concept of "sleeping contracts", ready to be activated when required. Which just shows that no plan is perfect as, in a rapidly spreading pandemic (and this has been rapid) those sleeping contracts might remain asleep as the suppliers of PPE for example may well be maxed out.
If there has been a problem it may well have been what some would call bureaucratic inefficiency. The governement is aware of at least 6000 companies who have offered to help with supply of PPE. One company boss, having been contacted by NHS Supply Chain*, noted that he provided quotes to supply surgical masks, protective suits, eye protection and sanitising gel and pledged to provide samples within three days. Having heard nothing he has supplied quotes every 7 days as market prices of raw materials change. Actually he has heard back from the NHS: they complained that his updates had confused them.
A spokesbod said that the government was processing offers from 6,000 suppliers. One might reasonably jump to the conclusion that they haven't had enough people working on this and, if so, since there must be an awful lot of buyers around the country on furlough then we haven't been maximising the use of our national resources. (The way furlough is working was a worry of mine in yesterday's post).
Eventually the inevitable inquiry will give us answers. But in the meantime I was alarmed to read that Matt Hancock has just appointed a "PPE tsar" to lead a national effort and "get a grip" on the supply of protective equipment for NHS workers. Horse and stable door come to mind.... And I was even more alarmed to read that Hancock's time has probably been spread to thinly, having to bring together efforts on expanding testing, sourcing and delivering PPE and increasing hospital capacity including efforts to buy and build ventilators.
Wow. I had blithely assumed that chunks of this would have been delegated or reassigned. It is believed Michael Gove has argued for a wartime style ministry of supply to co-ordinate some of this workload. Well he would, wouldn't he but Gove is probably under-utilised currently and he won't be the only cabinet minister in that category. I can perhaps understand (though not accept) that Hancock would have resisted any move by Raab to reassign parts of his normal duties. But Boris Johnson didn't go in to hospital until 5 April, long after I would have thought we should have moved into emergency mode in terms of management of the various elements of this crisis.
I am reminded of a chap who was my boss for several years who was ex-military and a very sharp cookie indeed. I am certain he would have told Hancock "you've got enough on your plate" and pointed at specific other people identifying which ones would be responsible for PPE supply, ventilator supply and providing extra hospital capacity. This would cut entirely across normal lines of management in the NHS and Public Health England, but so what? A good thing probably as we've also heard PHE has been overly protective of its role and slow to react.
Now of course Hancock will have had people dealing with all of these various things. But they've still been taking some of his attention. Said boss of mine believed strongly that if an issue was sufficiently important it required 100% of somebody's attention to manage it. I can recall a time when I had charge of a group of around 500 people, with a divestment of one large activity to another company in negotiation and myriad other issues to manage. My boss decided that resolving a particular commercial issue with the Ministry of Defence had become mission critical. There were several millions of pounds at stake and the dispute needed to be cleared up for the divestment to go through, avoiding potentially troublesome indemnities. I was told to leave everything to my (very capable) team of managers and spend 100% of my time on this single issue. At first I didn't see how I could spend all my time on the one issue and was spotted chairing a short review with part of my team. My boss was apoplectic: he went, as they say, apeshit. When he said 100% he meant 100%. He didn't care if I worked a 25 hour week instead of my normal 60 hours plus as a result. He wanted me thinking about nothing else and distracted by nothing else. And I did nothing else for about 3 weeks. We got our settlement (£3 million - I thought we'd do well to get £1 million) and the divestment went through. No other milk got spilled as a result.
So I would have thought that a big hitter should have been put in charge of each of those key deliveries to the NHS, none of which would take up much of Hancock's time under normal circumstances. And it should have been done a long time ago, way before we went into lockdown. I remember another piece of advice I received from a wise mentor early in my career: if you want to make sure something is done, make it someone's job. (He meant their whole job).
I said at the outset that I thought a lot of hindsight was being deployed. In case I am accused of the same I have checked my whatsapp message log as I recalled a message I sent to my sons while I was on holiday a while back:
"I've been reading what a prof from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, a co-discoverer of ebola, has to say about corona virus. He thinks we could be in for a huge number of cases, given its quick spread in China. You guys live in populated areas and travel on trains. I predict a run on face masks so buy early! Mind they don't do much good.....the main advice is lots of handwashing and stay 3ft** away from people.... lecture over."
The date? 11 February. I also said masks were readily available (at that time) on Amazon. If I knew masks would be in short supply by 11 February why was Hancock appointing a PPE tsar in mid April?
* NHS Supply Chain is a limited company wholly owned by the Secretary of Sate for Health and Social Care which manages the sourcing, delivery and supply of healthcare and food products to the NHS and social care organisations in England and Wales.
** 3 feet was the initial advice
Some of the quotations here come from "Hancock hands kit shortage problem to 2012 Games boss" in the Sunday Times, 19 April
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