Time to panic? Or boycott?

The second meaningful vote on Mrs May's deal was predictably lost. The pincer movement of remainers (many disguised as second referendum supporters) and hardline brexiteers would have made it difficult to get any deal through the Commons, let alone Mrs May's half baked effort. A huge majority voted to trigger Article 50 but there has never been a majority in Parliament for any single coherent option.

The meaningful but predictable vote has been followed by a mainly meaningless series of votes - because they don't actually change anything, at least yet. No deal was "taken off the table" but unless the primary legislation is changed - or Mrs May's walking dead deal gets approved at the third time of asking - it's what would still happen on 29 March.  The vote to flex the 29 March date depends on the EU agreeing, which depends on them knowing why we are asking for it. Which we don't know yet.

The Hilary Benn amendment that would have meant MPs took control of the Parliamentary agenda was narrowly defeated. The votes cast included at least one MP who recorded an "active abstention" by going through both voting lobbies rather than sitting on his butt. I hadn't realised that was possible. At least I learnt something interesting that day! This vote did have significance as, without control of the agenda, Theresa May might not have been able to continue to threaten her Brexiteer wing with "my deal or lose Brexit".

I suspect that the indicatve votes that the government has promised - and the Benn amendment would have delivered - would continue to reveal that there is no majority for any option - any form of out or staying in - so what next? Go with the option that gets the lowest majority against? I've heard the phrase "least worst option" often enough before but that would be the rummest version of it yet. And that could yet be May's deal, especially if the DUP blink and take a lot of the ERG along with them.

Whatever, we still don't know if Parliament will deliver on its promise to enact the verdict of the people and to carry through the Article 50 process they voted overwhelmingly in favour of triggering. I've read quite a few commentators saying that this would be a betrayal of democracy - quite eloquently by Allister Heath in the Telegraph*:
My question to those who voted to halt no deal last night, and who will wreak yet more havoc in the coming days, is this: do you not see how, by discrediting and ridiculing our democracy, you are undermining our greatest asset? Why do you think our cold, rain-sodden country with its broken infrastructure and second-rate trains has been so successful for so long? Our stability, our freedoms, our prosperity, our rule of law: all are predicated on our extraordinary political traditions. If we trash them, if our elite declares democracy to be a pathetic sham, we’ll have nothing left.....
Why risk doing so today? Yes, a real Brexit would be disruptive, but exploding our reputation for straight-dealing, for fair play, for respecting procedures, customs and rules would shake the foundations of our society, annihilate trust and prove immeasurably more damaging. The UK would become like France or Italy, unstable countries where populists increasingly rule the roost, where the public loathe their rulers and vote against them at the earliest opportunity. "

But, as "no deal" has not actually been ruled out yet, since by UK and EU law we are still due to leave on 29 March, is it time to panic? Or at least to panic buy since, if you believe the dire warnings of many bodies, there will be at least some chaos.

The reason why has never been properly explained, at least that I've seen. Plenty of spokespeople have confidently asserted that there would be disruption to transport, food and medicine supplies and many other things, only just short of the biblical plague of frogs. I can see why our exports to the EU would be hit. But as the EU producers would still want to sell to us, we would want to buy and the transport capacity currently exists it is not at all clear what specifically would cause disruption. French customs have been getting arsey in readiness but that happens from time to time anyway and I suspect their farmers would soon counter demonstrate. Of course all that is necessary is the fear of shortages for panic buying to start, which rapidly depletes supplies, proves to people that they were right to panic and starts a vicious cycle of behaviour.

So I guess I'd better start my panic buying soon as it's hardly early in this game. The last time we had that sort of thing - during Tony Blair's truck drivers dispute - Mrs H arrived home not with tins of beans and corned beef but extra toilet rolls. Maybe I'd better come along this time!

Mind, I have already been giving thought to my buying strategies with respect to EU goods. I meant to run a blog post some 18 months ago advocating a boycott of EU goods to help strengthen David Davis's hand in the negotiations.  If enough of us had done so it might have registered. But now I'm planning my own, individual Brexit protest if I decide that the EU haven't acted in what I consider to be good faith.

So Mrs H found me closely inspecting bottles of lager in the Tesco one day, checking which were brewed in the UK. I have plenty of choice of excellent, locally brewed Welsh craft bitters but lager is a bit more awkward. Yes there's the excellent Wrexham lager, but it's not so widely available. Becks has become my bottled lager of choice in recent years so what else could I find to substitute for it? Carling is ok but only available in tins and I much prefer bottled beers. Coors is brewed in good old Burton, but I'm not a fan. Looks as if it might have to be tins then, or Cobra.

You might think this all pathetically puerile but I am actually serious.

Some other decisions are easy, if not totally painless.  I like red wines from Spain, Italy and France but there's plenty of choice from the rest of the world. Spanish tomatoes may prove more problematic: I'll choose which goods to boycott, but if the Spanish play games over Gibraltar I'm going to be examining a lot of food labels more closely for countries of origin.

Larger purchases, like cars? My BMW is now 5 years old and I have replaced all my cars at 3 to 5 years old for over 20 years. But I have deferred replacing my current car till after Brexit. Seriously. Even if it ends up costing me more. If a good chunk of Britain's German car owners did the same the effect would definitely be felt in Stuttgart and Munich.

Switching from a German car would be no small decision for me. Unfortunately as rear wheel drive is not a sensible option where I live and I don't want an SUV I can't go back to Jaguar. And Japanese brands are trying to rule themselves out after some recent decisions - so Honda is out, Nissan wobbling and Toyota on the watch list. Looks like I could be keeping my current car quite a while.....

Of course, if a deal is agreed then we are only at the end of the beginning, to plagiarise Churchill. There's still the actual trading arrangements to negotiate. So why not join my move to more selective purchasing of EU goods, to strengthen our negotiating position? I'll toast you with a glass of New Zealand sauvignon.


* Britain's Remainer elites have declared war on democracy itself. Allister Heath, Telegraph 13 March 2019