Monday 25 March 2019

Crash Out or Smash Out?

After realising that my Brexit party, at which I plan to consume all the things I've panic bought in case we crash out of the EU on 29 March, either because we have a deal or when Project Fear evaporates, was not going to be much of a party, I went to Tesco today to do some planned panic buying. After all, there's no point in doing your panic buying in a panic, is there?

But as the day approaches I realise with ever greater clarity just how truly unutterably awful this whole Brexit process has been. Which of course is why I voted Remain, not because I had any belief in the EU. Things are now in such disarray that the Tories can't even panic buy a new leader.

However, I'm clear that from here the worst of all outcomes would be for us to somehow end up remaining in the EU. We would then undoubtedly be diminished in the eyes of the world. Our influence inside the EU would be non-existent. Our influence elsewhere would be minimal as the world will be able to see that we don't do what we say, don't mean what we say, don't have the stomach for any kind of tough negotiation and can generally be ignored and pushed around at will.

I accept that some people take the view that nation states are not the way forward and would be perfectly happy to see us subsumed into an ever greater euro-gunk. I personally think that viewpoint would command the support of less than 15% of the population.

The outcome that is perhaps only marginally less undesirable would be the fudge that some MPs are calling "Common Market 2.0" under which we become some kind of sub-Norway, inside the single market and customs union but without any say over their rules, paying in nearly as much to the EU's unauditable spendthrift budget as we do now and with no control over freedom of movement . A truly vassal state outcome. If I hear Stephen Kinnock just one more time on this purgatory of a solution I think my blood will boil even more than if I ever hear from Soubry, Grieve or Gina Miller again. Only Bercow can irritate me more! Remember the Governor of the Bank of England has described this idea as being a very bad one, with us effectively losing control of financial regulation when our country has a bigger financial sector than most, if not all, of the rest of the EU put together.

When you hear any of Corbyn and his team talking about "being in a customs union" be very clear that such an end point would be pretty much the same and just as bad.

As Dominic Lawson pointed out in yesterday's Sunday Times being trapped in the dreaded backstop wouldn't be as bad as Common Market 2.0.

So what does that leave? May's deal or no deal. Whenever I hear people talking about the risk of us "crashing out" of the EU without a deal I have taken to shouting "no, smashing out, we'd be smashing out".

It would, of course,have been preferable for us to have planned for such an outcome from the start. Then I suspect it would never have been necessary for us to consider it. One of Mrs May's many failings was going into the negotiating chamber without that deterrent fully primed.

We don't have much time now to set ourselves free. Free of the egregious Junckers and Tusks, with their jobs for the boys (and they do mainly seem to be boys) gravy train for which we pay a great big chunk of the bill. Free of their anti-democractic, job destroying EU which keeps millions of young people in the southern countries unemployed so the German car manufacturing based economy can continue to roll on.

I'd prefer to get this done in a sensible way. But if not, it will just have to be in a Captain Sensible way, since smashing our way out is preferable to being trapped inside.  As said Captain Sensible sang
We've been crying now for much too long
And now we're gonna dance to a different song
I'm gonna scream and shout til my dying breath
I'm gonna smash it up til there's nothing left
(The Damned, Smash It Up)

Damned if we don't......

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