I have resisted commenting yet on the deal that may or may not be a deal as I'm not sure I have understood enough of the ramifications yet. I know that hasn't stopped lots of people commenting, including many politicians, who clearly haven't read the draft and understand even less about the process. Or maybe they are just dissemblers on a grand scale. Yes, Jeremy Corbyn and Dominic Grieve, of course this includes you.
Corbyn probably does understand much of the draft and surely must understand, when he refers to the brief Political Declaration document and asks what the government has been doing for two years, that the EU was not prepared to even discuss the long term trade and other aspects of the relationship until we get into the transition period after we have left. Of course this is totally daft as you can't design the transition unless you know what you are transitioning to: all good project managers know you start at the end and work back when you are planning. Perhaps the EU wanted to influence where we do transition to or maybe they are just pig-headed and incompetent. Or all three. We all - including Corbyn - know he wouldn't have got any further than May in changing that process, though I would have been tempted to walk out at the start in an attempt to avoid being driven along the path that we have been taken. A number of commentators are saying we should walk out now but it is far too late for that. Just as it's too late to put in place the preparations for no deal, for which we can thank Phil 'Spreadsheet' Hammond. So we can forget those as viable options now.
We know Corbyn - and indeed the whole Labour party - are dissemblers at best on Brexit. Their strategy is to criticise whatever the government does, even as it gets ever closer to what Labour has been proposing. Of course what Labour is proposing - getting all of the benefits of the single market while not being in it - is impossible. I'm indebted to Stephen Bush* for pointing out that Labour's "six tests" for the government's deal actually boil down to one: is the government in question a Conservative one? If yes the deal fails the test. If no, the same deal would be acceptable.
Though I've never thought Jeremy Corbyn clever, I rather assumed Dominic Grieve, as a QC, member of the Privy Council and former Attorney General, was. I've met a few barristers - and I've been cross examined by a QC (commercial arbitration case, I hasten to add!) They were all fiercely bright and quick on the uptake. So I was staggered when I heard Grieve complaining last week, as May returned from Brussels with peace in our time (or something) and before the draft Withdrawal Treaty was even published, that the draft Political Declaration was only a few pages long. He surely knew that the EU had specified the negotiating timetable which, inter alia, meant that none of the long term issues would be resolved yet. So either he's got memory loss or this was posturing just as much as Corbyn. All very unedifying.
My biggest concern is that the Withdrawal Treaty puts us pretty firmly in Hotel California, checked out but unable to leave, which has been a major concern of mine since the Joint Report was published last December (see Reasons To Be Cheerful - or Entangled, 8 December 2017). I will return to that soon but at the moment I am influenced by other developments within the EU and gossip we hear from the negotiation.
A long time ago now I referred to the EU's self-harming psychopathic tendencies. By that I meant that their precious "project" is more important to the Brussels bureaucrats than the well being of the peoples of the EU. Indeed, that self-harming psychopath phrase is probably the single thing I'm most pleased with since I started this blog. Anyway, they are still at it.
Italy's populist coalition has set a budget that is within the EU's rules for budget deficits. Nevertheless the EU is insisting that Italy revise it. The IMF has been broadly in agreement with the EU stance, while not being entirely without sympathy for the case for a growth stimulus. I wonder if those europhiles who also bang on about austerity (Nicola Sturgeon for example) realise that their precious EU would lock them into long term penury like they have Greece and may be shaping to do with Italy. The EU is very good at insisting on some aspects of its precious single market - the four freedoms. But it is also very good at turning a blind eye to the dysfunctionalities in the EU, under which Germany gets ever richer and the struggling countries are condemned to continue struggling.
This is the sort of thing I had in mind when I referred to self harming psychopaths, though it was specifically Darth Vader, aka Martin Selmayr. Selmayr was Juncker's Chief of Staff who then got himself appointed as the Secretary General of the Commission in a process that was reported to be flawed (or, if you prefer, fixed) but of course he has been allowed to stay in post. Selmayr is supposed to have said that the UK must pay a price for leaving the EU and the price is losing Northern Ireland. Selmayr has form, we knew what we were up against and we met fire with, well what exactly? A polite British smile?
Meanwhile Sabine Weyand, Barnier's deputy chief negotiator and reputed to be the "brains" in his team, blew the gaff telling EU ambassadors that the notorious backstop would be used by the EU as a basis for the long term relationship with the UK locked in to the customs union and level playing field of EU rules for social and environmental policy. And, lo and behold, a week later that is pretty much how you can interpret the Political Declaration.
Why am I not surprised?
Of course, staying relatively close to the EU is a perfectly tenable long term policy, but Mrs May's cards close to chest approach means there hasn't been much debate about that against less constrained options. So I am suspicious: the kind of feeling you get when you know you're about to be conned and you might not be able to do much about it.
People like Selmayr and Weyand are one of the reasons I've been a eurosceptic since I spent quite a lot of time in Brussels at the Berlaymont and subsidiary buildings in the 1990s. They also remind me of an interesting conversation I had with one of my son's friends recently. Justin (that isn't his name but if he reads this he will appreciate the joke) is perhaps the only Brit I know who has taken advantage of freedom of movement - he lives and works in Madrid. In passing I note that I could reel off the names of at least a dozen people I know who have gone to live and work in English speaking countries: the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Now I'm of an age where that might be the case, but it's still an interesting personal statistic.
Anyway, I was more than interested to debate Brexit with Justin. At one point I made my cheap jibe that the fact the EU has 5 presidents and that we can't get rid of any of them directly through the ballot box tells you all you need to know about how anti-democratic the EU is. He responded immediately, pointing out that folk like Juncker and Tusk are actually EU civil servants. We don't elect our civil servants so why should we expect to elect Brussels bureaucrats? I had to concede this was a good point. However, on reflection I would point out that British civil servants don't have a public profile, don't talk directly to the press and don't formulate policy but carry out the instructions of their elected ministers. Maybe apart from Olly Robins they do what they are told. So I think my point still stands even if it really means there's a democratic deficit is in the balance of power and lack of checks and balances between the Brussels eurocrats and the elected politicians.
Though reading what Dominic Raab had to say after his resignation** it does seem that said Olly Robins has been given too much discretion and has kept the SoS for Brexit out of the loop at key times. We knew from her time at the Home Office that Mrs May is a control freak who works more closely with her trusted officials and advisers than her ministers. Raab says he was unaware of the key backstop clause until a day before the deal was announced when it had been under discussion, without his knowledge, for 4 days. "I've asked how this change was made and who licensed it and there's not been a clear answer".
Raab, talking about the 'controlling' nature of the EU, says "the trail always seem to lead back to Martin Selmayr" and he has strong words about the Irish government with what he calls unprofessional and unstatesmanlike behaviour by Leo Varadkar. Well, Dom, if you'd been reading my blog you'd have known to watch out for these two. Raab also says he doubts Brussels ever thought the 'difficult woman' was prepared to walk away, an essential ingredient to a succesful negotiation. Oh Dom, you really should have been reading my blog a year ago!
Meanwhile the ECJ continues to stick its oar in where it isn't wanted, ordering an immediate halt to a £1bn scheme designed to keep Britain's lights on. The Government's "capacity market" energy security scheme pays the owners of Britain's gas coal and nuclear plants a fee to guarantee that they are available to power up the grid when demand for electricity is high. The scheme has encouraged investment in much-needed new power units and smoothed energy market price spikes by ensuring that there is always enough power on standby to meet demand. It seems a sensible intervention in the energy market. But the ECJ ruling prevents the UK Government from holding any capacity auctions or making any payments to power generators that have already won contracts. By 2021 as much as 8 gigawatts of new power plants, batteries and energy-saving devices could be at stake if the capacity market is permanently dismantled. I'm not sure whether the ECJ thinks this is anti-competitive because it advantages current providers against new suppliers, though I don't see many companies willing to build new power plants, or because it disadvantages suppliers from other countries, even though the capacity of the inter-connectors to the continent are limited. Now I'm a believer in free markets but if the government thinks this scheme is necessary I am very unhappy indeed at the ECJ's interference. The Telegraph said*** that there is unlikely to be a higher risk of blackouts but I think it leaves a risk that energy providers may decide market prices aren't high enough to be worth keeping some of their plants ticking over in hot standby when consumers would want them to.
[P.S. added later: The case came to the ECJ because of a complaint by a small company called Tempus energy. Tempus specialise in trying to help reduce energy demand: "Our technology uses AI and smart algorithms to control and optimise when flexible assets use energy" they say. But they couldn't get anywhere and pulled out of supplying energy in the UK earlier in the year. They are now focussing on Australia. Give me a break! Unless they are prepared to build and operate enough power stations to meet demand peaks their complaint should have been thrown out. Some observers say the wholesale price of electricity could double as a result of this unwelcome and surprising ruling.]
The ECJ's role in our long term future is very much an issue in the current debate. I am very clear: it shouldn't have any role unless we decide to comply with EU rules in specific areas. Then it's purview is unavoidable. And that is perhaps the prime reason I am uneasy about staying too close in any aspect of the relationship. I could buy into a common rule book but not if that's just a euphemism for EU controlled rules backed by the ECJ.
If I can make my mind up about the deal I'll let you know next week sometime, but I think the PM has bought some time to try to sell it. It seems that, once again, there is a disconnect between the people and Parliament with the deal a damned sight more popular with the public than MPs. I think the vote, when it comes, could be close. I am mildly amused that MPs will be the target of Project Fear (the prospect of no deal and/ or Corbyn) over the next few days. Why not? We've had to put up with enough of it.
I'll end with a comment I saw on Facebook a couple of says ago. Bruce Burniston (no idea who he is) responded to one of the Brexit threads I saw with this commendable rant: "I really fear for the future of the young of the UK if we remain shackled in any way to the EU. Remaining won't affect me and I can travel to the Continent which I enjoy. However, the reality is that those clamouring for Remain simply do not understand how the UK has been consistently economically shafted by its membership of the EU. A modest trade surplus in 1973 has been converted into a horrendous trade deficit now approaching £100 billion annually. Our fishing, shipbuilding and steel industries have been decimated in favour of continental industries. Brussels has never contemplated the single market for services, in which the UK excels. The UK makes a monetary transfer to the rest of the EU of around £145 billion a year (trade deficit, plus 2.5% VAT plus membership fee less grants etc, plus 80% of duties on imports from outside the EEA, plus remittances home from EU workers here). You cannot spend money twice. Our collapsing infrastructure and public services are the result of several decades of wealth being siphoned off from the UK and transferred to the rest of the EU.The real and present threat to democracy by the increasing power of the unelected administrators in Brussels and Frankfurt is just the icing on the cake for the argument against remaining in the EU."
Bruce's rant is economically naive, adding direct payments to trade deficits, though that wouldn't trouble President Trump. But he caught the flavour of much of what I feel. I've been doubtful about the EU for 25 years. This maybe our one shot to change our future. We could escape, end up in Brussels orbit, or remain wading in treacle, supposedly having influence and a 'place at the table' but actually being pretty much ignored as Major and Cameron were, while we subsidise the whole shindig. "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss" The Who sang. Is that what you are offering, Mrs May? The problem is not only do we not know for sure where Theresa's deal would take us, she doesn't either. But Martin Selmayr might.....
* Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His column "No, Prime Minister" - the only words uniting the wrangling factions of Labour was in the Sunday Times on 18 November.
** 'I was hoodwinked': Raab calls for inquiry into Brexit. Sunday Times 18 November 2018
*** UK back-up power scheme frozen by ECJ. Daily Telegraph 16 November 2018
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