With the clock ticking and the UK wanting to get on with talking trade the crunch time has come on the Irish border and Brexit. Which is why half the news these days seems to be about hard or soft, be it borders or Brexit.
The biggest surprise for me in the events of Monday 4 December, at least as they were reported, was that Theresa May seemed not to have made sure for herself that the DUP had been squared off before going to break bread with Juncker. After all, she had relied on what her chief whip told her after the election and went and told the Queen she had a deal when it turned out she hadn't actually got it pinned down. It didn't hurt the chief whip's career - she made him defence secretary recently. But to apparently make the same mistake again and have to interrupt her cosy lunch seemed incredible. I wonder what post the new chief whip will get promoted to? Though some reports are saying that the deal that wasn't only ever concerned aligning regulations on specific aspects of the Good Friday agreement, like transport, energy and agriculture, with the Brits wanting to say "now can we move on to talk trade?". After all, there's a catch 22 on customs issues until trade is discussed, surely? Those reports are also saying it was the EU side who jumped the gun, briefing that a deal had been reached, possibly trying to bounce May but also spooking the DUP. Nevertheless, if the communications between the DUP and Tories were working, surely it wouldn't have panned out this way.
As usual I'm going to say I had predicted these difficulties - see my posts of 22 Nov and 17 Sept, the latter referring to a Gordian knot and issues "laden with political and emotional implications" in terms of the border. But it didn't take a crystal ball really, did it?
Unless the EU and Irish are prepared to consider the UK's suggestion of using "technology and innovation" (no, I don't know exactly what that means in this context either, let alone whether it could work) one is left with limited options: a border in Ireland, a border between Northern Ireland and the UK, Northern Ireland staying in the customs union when the rest of the UK doesn't (a suggestion that inevitably made Nicola Sturgeon pipe up with "we'll have some of that") or all of the UK staying in the customs union. None of these options really work, unless you are a Remainer who wants to go for the last of these, the "soft" (for which read soft-headed in my view) or Hotel California Brexit, as I called it on 17 September, where we check out but don't leave the single market, customs union or the embrace of the ECJ, still pay into the EU budget but have no representation in the EU's institutions and still have freedom of movement imposed on us, which some argue - reasonably convincingly when you look at the numbers - is the real cause of our housing crisis. Niall Ferguson was even more caustic about this, likening it to being a child bride under sharia rather than a divorce.
Ferguson also noted that there is no way back to the "status quo ante". He was referring mainly to the UK's EU membership condtions, with rebates and opt outs. But the point holds in spades for the Irish border. The "soft" border we had from the 1920s pre-dated both the Republic and UK being in the EU. They joined together in 1973. One country being in the EU and the other outside is a new situation, which surely was always going to mean that continuing the soft border arrangements needed a new solution. And, of course, people have got used to virtually no border recently - the soft border of the free travel area wasn't actually that soft in the days of watchtowers, was it?
Bertie Ahern, a former Taoiseach, suggested an old solution: have a hard border and just ignore it, don't police it. This is surely the daftest thing anyone has said yet on this issue. I can't imagine the EU ever sitting by while Northern Ireland became a massive version of Gibraltar in terms of smuggling stuff into the EU and"laundering" it through the Republic to other countries.
There are some things that could be done to ease the obvious problems a renewed border would pose to the Irish folk who have got used to crossing it freely in either direction for myriad reasons including access to health care, education, employment and shops. One report highlighted a road that crossed the border multiple times in a few short miles. The border could, of course be rationalised to make sure that each road crosses only once for example, that is if you could get anyone there to talk about such a thing rationally (I expect you can't).
All of this was pretty obvious before we had the referendum, let alone got into the article 50 negotiations. However, it looks like the only option left for solving it is to send for International Rescue......
Though actually, it occurs to me that's not the only solution. I was irritated hearing on the radio today that the EU had tweeted that it was ready to talk further as soon as the UK was. And I heard an EU spokesman saying that the problem was between the Tories and the DUP. No, chum, it's not. The biggest problem actually belongs to the Irish Republic.
Trade with the UK is vital for both parts of Ireland. 12% of the Republic's exports of goods and 18% of services go to mainland UK. Only 1.6% go to Northern Ireland. And it is the rest of the UK that matters to the north as well: two-thirds of Northern Ireland's economy is internal trade, exports to the rest of the UK make up 21%, those to the Republic 5% and the rest of the EU 3%. Which explains why it's the link to the rest of the UK that matters to the DUP. Indeed, some say that even if the Tories had got a majority of 100, a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK would never have flown, so it's nonsense in my view to lay any of this at the door of the DUP.
So, if we are at an impasse (which is not necessarily the case yet), I think it's time to walk away from Rene and say ok, if you lot aren't prepared to play ball at all, always saying it's our problem, never engaging with any ideas of your own, we are getting ready for no deal. Specifically on Ireland, we won't do anything about the border; as far as we are concerned it will carry on post-Brexit as it is now, no customs posts, no passport control, whatever. If you (the Irish government and the EU) want to change the arrangements, go ahead. When you've got any ideas to share, we are ready to listen to you. We should just turn the tables and sit tight.
That might also make German industry sit up. I read recently the reason most German companies that export to the UK are relaxed is because they don't think Brexit is actually going to happen. Time to wake them up.
It's also about time the trouble-making Irish government stopped freeloading on the UK. Indeed, it may have to, to some extent. The eurointelligence website notes that the republic has been overly reliant on the UK as an ally in EU negotiations and as a source of information on what is happening in the EU as well as a buyer of its goods and services. Once we leave the the EU, the Republic won't be able to piggy back on our civil servants' work and our media's analysis, as we will be outsiders. Perhaps because it has so little footprint and influence in the EU outside of the UK, or in places like Africa, Ireland has - bizzarely - applied to join Francophonie, a club of French speaking states, though as an observer not a member*. The same source says that French is growing as a language in Africa and, if population grows as forecast, French "could even overtake Mandarin, English or Spanish as the world's most spoken language". Hmm, I don't think I'll need to hold my breath on that one, Freres Jaques and Patrick. But Ireland will certainly have an adjustment to make after Brexit. So we should say it's their problem. They might actually think of something instead of just throwing stones.
*Ireland in search of its own path in the EU is at http://www.eurointelligence.com/public/?t=1&cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email&iid=4cab67e29af841ccb87e7c5bda73f5eb&uid=247826759&nid=244+272699400
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