Je ne regret rien

I followed a link to an interesting item by Anthony Wells, of the polling organisation yougov, titled "On measuring support for Brexit".

He notes that people with an axe to grind get very excited about poll results supporting their viewpoint, a recent example being a yougov poll which partisan writers claimed backed Brexit by 48% to 39%. That result was actually the GB element of a an EU wide poll which was mainly aimed at finding out whether other EU countries still wanted us to stay. (For the record most Germans, Danes, Swedes and Finns want us to stay. The perfidious French are evenly divided).

Wells notes that people get three different questions tangled up:
Question 1. How would you vote in a new referendum held tomorrow. This question tends to show a lead for Remain of typically one to four points. But Wells points out that you then have to assess whether people would actually vote. After all, most of the polls showed the same thing before the referendum. And it's academic because there ain't a referendum tomorrow.
Question 2. Whether Brexit was the right or wrong decision. Tracks of polls asking this question show a slow drift towards regret, with slightly more people thinking the decision was wrong than right over the last few months. But that doesn't mean people think Brexit shouldn't happen - as that is...
Question 3. Whether people think we should now go ahead with Brexit or not. YouGov have a semi-regular tracker that asks how the government should proceed with Brexit, which this month found 52% thought the government should go ahead with Brexit, 16% that they should call a second referendum, 15% that they should stop Brexit and remain in the EU. Wells says "The reason for the difference in these questions is that a substantial minority of people who voted Remain in 2016 consistently say that the government should go ahead and implement Brexit (presumably because they see them as having a democratic duty to implement the referendum result)."

Wells concludes: "It is true to say that more of the public now tend to think Brexit was the wrong decision than the right decision, and say they would vote against it in a referendum. It is also true to say that most of the public think that Brexit should go ahead. Neither measure is intrinsically better or worse, right or wrong… they are just asking slightly different things. If you want to understand public attitudes towards Brexit, you need to look at both, rather than cherry pick the one that tells you what you want to hear."

So, according to Wells my view (voted remain, but believe the government should get on and implement the referendum result without another referendum) is very much part of the public opinion picture.

Sorry you Germans, Danes, Swedes and Finns. We might regret it but we're still determined to snub you and leave.

*You can read the full article, posted on 27 December, at  http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9962