Thursday 24 March 2016

More on the Stock Exchange merger and Brexit

Since posting a few days ago on  the implications of the merger of the London Stock Exchange with the Deutsche Borse for the Grexit debate (see 19 March post) I've seen an interesting interview with the LSE chairman, Donald Bryden (Sunday Times, 20 March).

Amongst the points of interest for those of us who aren't that knowledgeable about the markets were:
1. the buying and selling of shares only accounts for 14% of the LSE's sales. It provides "infrastructure, hard and soft" (me neither) that helps institutions to trade
2. the prospective partners are a good match as Deutsche Borse is stronger in derivatives, while the LSE is stronger in indices and equities
3. London already owns the Milan stock exchange (which I'd forgotten) so combining with Frankfurt will mean closer links across 3 countries and make the market "more liquid" (which I take to mean more cash swilling around in it - though still less, I would guess than in New York or Chicago, whose exchanges might yet come in with a bid for London)
4. the new "merged" company (inverted commas because the Germans will control it, owning 55%) will be based in London, not Frankfurt. This has caused politicians in Germany to ask questions
5. they are still saying that the deal is not contingent on the referendum vote, though, per Mandy Rice Davies, they would, wouldn't they? Other reports are saying they might try to crash it through before 23 June (which makes one wonder if they are worried it could fall through if we vote to leave), though they probably can't get all the paperwork in place that quickly. Bryden said "There is no reason the [combined] group's structure would be different whether we are in or out of Europe....We are a global business today.....Whether it's technically in a political union of Europe, or the European continent, we'll still be able to serve European markets."

I am left with an even stronger feeling that the Herrs at Deutsche Borse can't possibly feel that Brexit would be very damaging and they must think that even the short term shock would be, well, short.

And if we did vote to leave, then the fact that the exchanges of Frankfurt, Milan and London were in one company based in London would make me feel pretty confident about the future of the City outside the EU.

Bryden was careful to stay out of the Brexit debate as such. But judge by what they do, rather than what they say?

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