But football is, in a way, coming home as many matches will be live in many homes around the country over the next few weeks. 33 of the 92 fixtures due to be played to complete the 2019/20 season are being shown free to air so football really is coming into our homes. Even Sky is making some games available free, including Sunday's Merseyside derby. But not tonight's first matches, Aston Villa hosting Sheffield United and Manchester City against Arsenal.
It will be interesting to see whether the games are as intense without fans present in the grounds and to hear how the, er, eloquent banter between players is dealt with - presumably with a lot of apologies from the commentator if sounds from within the ground can be clearly heard. I expect I will find any added fake crowd noise, which EA Sports has made available from its FIFA video game, highly irritating and much less entertaining than hearing the players bad mouth each other.
There is a huge amount at stake for the teams that could qualify for Europe but even more for the teams facing relegation. Ejection from the Premier League is financially catastrophic at the best of times but the vastly lower TV revenue in the Championship means the lack of a definite timescale for capacity crowds will make budgeting a huge headache this time.
We also learned something interesting from the shutdown. Suggestions of curtailing the season brought a firm response from the commercial rights holders, who made it clear that the battle to avoid relegation is every bit as important as the race for European places in the squeaky bum stage of the season. This cheered me up no end as I've always held that the TV money should be shared out equally by appearances. I know more people normally watch Man U than Sheff U but not many are interested in watching Man U play anyone unless it's a Premier League match. It takes 20 teams to form the league, not half a dozen and we now have hard commercial evidence for that.
The only unfortunate aspect about the return is that the race for the top and bottom places doesn't look much of a race and could be pretty well all over very quickly leaving a lot of dead rubbers.
Unusually, as readers will know they are the team I've loved to hate for nearly 50 years, I hope Manchester City do not lose tonight because that would mean that Liverpool cannot clinch the league by winning at Goodison on Sunday. Yes, of course that reveals the extent of my confidence in my own team. Liverpool have never won the Premier League title (oh, I so enjoyed writing that) but it will take a lot more than a Stevie G la slip this time and so it is of course only a matter of time before they deservedly clinch their first top flight title since 1990. But, please, not at Goodison Park.
What else will happen? After an unplanned spring break there is no form to go on. Even so, while other clubs are not, in that strange phrase, "mathematically safe" - after all, can you be "mathematically pregnant?" - it's hard to see any team outside the bottom six going down. Southampton are 7th bottom with 34 points and one would think 38 points or lower might be where the line is drawn. So Norwich, stranded at the bottom on 21 points, look sunk even without examination of their fixture list - which looks "interesting". After warming up against Southampton and Everton at home they face 3 key head to head matches in a row against other relegation rivals - Brighton, Watford and West Ham. Even if they pick up wins in those matches their last three games then include Chelsea and Man City away. So Norwich are surely gone. Even though striker Teemu Pukki - whose name always reminds me of Pukka pies even though my preferred half time snack is a chunky KitKat - has a goal in him, their goal difference is the worst in the division by some margin, so they don't score many and they let in a lot.
The other teams in the bottom three, Villa and Bournemouth, also have hard fixtures with more than three-quarters of their remaining games against teams in the top twelve. Watford, and West Ham, both on 27 points with Bournemouth, have more like half their games against top twelve teams. Watford and West Ham look to me to have a good chance of getting clear, though not quickly as their easier games don't come at the start.
The team that might make take a late dive for the trap door is Brighton, currently in 15th place and only two points ahead of the three way tie between Watford, West Ham and Bournemouth for the third relegation spot. Their next 6 matches are against Arsenal, Leicester, Man United, relegation rivals Norwich, Liverpool and Man City. So for me it looks like the relegated teams will be Norwich, Villa (ouch, after net transfer spending of £142 million in the last two windows, more than any club in Europe apart from Real Madrid!) and a south coast death battle between Bournemouth and Brighton.
Which clubs will do well from the break and low-atmosphere matches? Well several clubs have got players back to fitness. I imagine Spurs fans will be the most pleased at the prospect of having Kane and Son back, but Man United fans will be intrigued to watch perennial under-performer Paul Pogba alongside Bruno Fernandes. If, as many expect, the break and the empty stadia produce lower intensity matches Pogba, who seems to like the pace of Serie A rather than the Premier League, may well hit his stride. I also expect several other teams to do well in what is likely to be a training ground atmosphere lacking in edge. Man City and Arsenal always like to play "training ground" football and I would fancy Wolves and maybe Chelsea to also benefit. Jurgen Klopp has challenged Liverpool to produce their normal intensity - it will be difficult, but not actually that important. They might be better coasting to the League and saving some energy for next season. I think it will be more difficult for teams like Leicester and Sheffield United to reproduce their pre-lockdown form. I think we will learn quite a bit about the character of players in mid-table squads like Burnley's and Everton's where we will see if the coaches and leaders on the pitch can cajole performances out of the squad members who have rather enjoyed being at home with their families, some of whom are likely to be playing as if wearing their flip flops ready for their summer holidays.
As for European qualification, the big question is whether Sheffield United can do it. It would be a marvellous feat and the manager's achievements with the club are remarkable, though I think they are far from the easiest club to warm to. I doubt the break will help them in terms of momentum and, looking at it with cold hearted scepticism, Man United, Wolves, Tottenham and Arsenal are vying with the Blades for one European place, two if Man City's ban is upheld for next season at least. Five of the top 9 clubs, down to Arsenal and including Sheffield United, are in the F A Cup quarter finals which could therefore provide an extra European place to this group. That still makes the odds only around 50-50 without allowing for pedigree. For what it's worth I don't think Sheffield United will qualify for Europe. But then I said Leicester definitely wouldn't win the Premier League at the beginning of 2016.
As for the intensity of the programme rather than the matches, I hear Pep Guardiola is worried about injuries from the schedule of up to 13 games in 40 days, depending on their F A Cup results. The poor dears. With their big squads I suspect the real joker over the next month will be positive coronavirus tests in Premier League squads rather than injuries.
I don't normally watch much live football on tv if my own team isn't playing and I haven't missed live sport on tv as much as I would have expected. But I am quite excited about it coming back and more interested than usual in seeing teams other than my own. Mrs H is, of course, absolutely thrilled.
However, as we are ploughing our way through the Shetland crime series on catch up tv football probably won't be coming into our home much tonight and will have to wait for the weekend. Going to the match? Who knows but, for old times sake, here I am in the Winslow, aka the People's Pub, with my blue son, our faces filled with pre-match excitement before the last game we went to at Goodison in January:
I know the picture was taken before the match because I doubt we looked that thrilled at the end. Everton were coasting at 2-0 after an hour and had plenty more chances to seal the deal. Newcastle looked pretty sorry throughout until they scored in the 4th minute of time added on, then came alive and equalised with practically the last touch of the game in the 96th minute to make it 2-2.
It's been quite nice not having to get agitated about my team, VAR, etc. But this week the emotional roller coaster gets switched back on...... I'm sure football fans across the country will enjoy the ride and the government will welcome the distraction provided by the modern day opium of the people.
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