I was surprised so much was made of the government losing three votes in quick succession over the publication of legal advice on the EU Withdrawal Agreement the other day. Yes it was unusual but people seem to have forgotten that we have a minority government. All the opposition parties could have been expected to vote against the government to make mischief. And the DUP had every reason to do so as well in case they could use any information that was revealed to undermine the Irish backstop. So they were all going to vote against and the goverment was bound to lose.
The published details revealed - of course - absolutely nothing. The precise words of the cabinet briefing may have been more stark than the Attorney General's statement but there was no material difference. After all, the AG would gave been daft to say anything very different to the Commons knowing the paperwork would probably have to be disclosed shortly afterwards.
For what it's worth I think a very dangerous precedent was set by Parliament though I'm sure in the future, when a government is pressed to release "full" legal advice, it will hide behind the exceptional constitutional circumstances of Brexit.
In this case, as expected, we didn't learn anything new. We already knew that the backstop would kick in at the end of the transition period if a trade deal hasn't been completed and will stay in place unless and until one is. Nothing new there: Hotel California.
It has been clear from the outset that it is difficult for the UK, including Northern Ireland, to leave the EU without either having a border of some kind in Ireland or in the Irish Sea. I've been banging on about this pretty much since the referendum. More importantly the EU saw the issue with some clarity at the outset as well.
Keen readers of this blog will recall my facile solution: we say that we aren't erecting any kind of border in Ireland and effectively dare the Irish to do the same. Actually, it ain't so facile as the amount of north-south trade, while important to locals, is very small in the bigger picture. And we could continue doing VAT and other checks as they are now, away from the border. Such checks could be beefed up if there were signs of organised criminality or just, in the charming phrase of my old boss (a wonderful and determined lady) of folk "taking the piss". If the EU were to force the Irish to implement a border we simply say "it's not ours". And the UK government has had the sense to say that, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, it would not build a physical border in Ireland.
I don't follow the pronouncements of the smirking Taioseach, Leo Varadkar, closely as it wouldn't be good for my blood pressure. But apparently he has said that even in a no deal scenario the Irish would not construct a hard border either. And the WTO has said that it would not demand a physical border or call for additional checks. Reporting this, Dominic Lawson* said numerous customs experts, both British and European, have argued that tariff deviation between the north and south of Ireland could be handled without intrusive border infrastructure. He asked, rhetorically, if Brussels would send in its own officials to construct a hard border against Dublin's wishes?
Lawson described this situation, which appears to be a problem that isn't a problem but doesn't have a solution, as a "mystery". But it's not really mysterious, is it, Dom? Brussels has used it throughout as a lever in the negotiations, steadfastly refusing to countenance potential solutions and ignoring similar non-borders around the EU periphery.
Perhaps Schrodinger' s cat has the solution. Those of you who have never studied quantum mechanics may not have heard of Schrodinger's thought experiment, a paradox in which a cat trapped in a box could be simultaneously dead and alive. But if you opened the box to observe it the cat would be either dead or alive. By analogy, perhaps we could have a border that is both things at once, looking soft to some and hard to others depending on the point of view of the observer. Is this what the British side means when it talks of "technology"? Maybe we should suggest M Barnier looks up Schrodinger's Cat on Wikipedia (as, of course, I just did).
Otherwise we might have to consult Alice in Wonderland.
* The main theme of Dominic Lawson's column in the Sunday Times on 2 December was "Mrs May is the last person to sell her own agreement". Quite!
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