Boris is a bit dim

So Boris Johnson has finally woken up to the fact that the Withdrawal Agreement signed with the EU last December is a duff deal and should be torn up. It has only taken him eight and a half months to agree with me (see Reasons To Be Cheerful - or Entangled, 8 December 2017, the day said agreement was published).

Boris now says the UK "stumbled and collapsed" into the Northern Ireland backstop arrangement which commits the UK to "in the absence of agreed solutions....maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union...." (a quote from the Agreement and my blog).

I said then "So the onus remains entirely on us to bring forward ideas to fix the potentially unfixable. The EU side can just refuse to agree to anything they or the Republic don't like. They don't have to do anything other than say "non"...... And, potentially to infinity, the UK is trapped maintaining "full alignment" with the single market and customs union. This gives the EU side the most enormous lever in future negotiations. I'm sure they won't hesitate to use it." This, I said, left us trapped in the Hotel California, checked out but unable to leave.

Now I don't actually believe Boris is dim, this must all have been obvious to him then. But it didn't suit him to say so. OK, hypocrite, rather than thick, I'll go for. I guess he is wondering if the time might now be "right". Cometh the hour....

Well time is certainly running short. What should we do? It's pretty clear to me that the Chequered Compromise, as I've been calling it, is as dead as Monty Python's parrot. The EU won't buy it, at least not without much further compromise on the UK side. And it won't remotely command a majority in the Commons. So why does Theresa carry on flogging this dead duck, amusingly compared to Count Ducula on Question Time last night as, like Dracula it seems to be "undead" and, at the same time, a laughing stock. I guess she feels there's still a chance, however remote, that the EU might blink first and agree to something like it and she's invested a lot of credibility in it.

But if they don't I actually agree with Boris that the best answer is a Canada Dry ("plus plus" or whatever) free trade agreement as that would actually mean we had left, free of the sovereignty denying ECJ, free to decide what we want to do on immigration, trading standards etc. Which might be to align with the EU in some cases but at least it will be our choice rather than their dictat.

And Ireland? I accept that Canada Dry leaves a problem if the EU will not accept checks away from the border, even though I believe they do this for the Spain-Canary Isles border that isn't (i.e. they are one country but the mainland is in the Customs Union and the Canaries aren't, so it isn't entirely analogous but it does seem to be relevant). But if I won't accept the Scottish tail wagging the UK dog, why should I accept the Irish? We simply go to the solution I have previously advocated - we don't have border checks but if the Irish Republic is told to by the EU then there's nothing we can do about that. Yes, it might hasten the day of a united Ireland which I would have resisted in the past but now the Republic is joining the modern, secular, world there wouldn't seem to be much to fear for the north. And the north seems to have decided it can't work together to govern itself anyway, having broken the world record last month for the length of time an elected assembly has gone without a government. (There has been no Stormont sitting since January 2017). So one could argue the north is essentially giving up the right to self determination.

I feel certain that, after the softening up period Theresa has given us in which business and the markets have begun to consider the cliff edge of a no-deal, a solution based on an agreed free trade deal would be greeted positively. The EU can hardly say no as it's one of their off the shelf models and doesn't prejudice the single market. And it probably could command a majority in the Commons, unless Labour succeed in a three-line whip against it intended only to force a General Election, given that the DUP may have a dummy throwing hissy fit. 

And, ironically, it's what the EU probably fear most - an independent Britain, entirely free to forge its own trade deals, set its own tax rates and leave the sclerotic EU behind in its wake. It's why they want to bind us close and to hamper our ability to manoeuvre.

For those of you wanting a second referendum, I'm sorry. I read several weeks ago that you're timed out: the earliest possible date, given the necessary Parliamentary schedule for an Act and the notice necessary, was then Thursday 28 March. So the most you can have is a referendum about rejoining. And I don't accept that it's sensible to ask a multiple choice question on the lines of "do you want deal A, deal B, deal C, no deal exit or remain" which would be a skewed question intended only to split the leave vote. Of course Leavers can't agree on the best solution, that's normal where there are multiple options.

That of course is all just my opinion. But I was taken by how solid the Question Time audience was last night. It was presented from Bishop Auckland and, by the sound of it, having predominantly voted leave they clearly felt we should, well, leave. Simple really.

So Theresa: time to switch horses. Or make way. But for Boris? Hmmm....