A dog being dragged backwards by its tail

So now the conundrum of the Irish question and, in particular, our foolishness in getting drawn into discussion of the Irish border issue in the first phase of the Brexit negotiations, comes back to haunt us. It was always obvious to everybody that this issue could not be fixed before trade and customs were discussed. But we allowed it to happen and, desperate to get the first phase done, agreed to an "agreement to agree" with a fallback that said, in the absence of such an agreement, Northern Ireland would maintain full alignment with the single market. Our side seemed to proceed on the basis that we need to get a trade deal, so this fallback was irrelevant. But this left the obvious trap that the EU, with the Irish having an effective veto, need not agree to anything, tieing us in a Gordian knot between the two unpalatable options of an Irish land border or a customs border between mainland Britain and all of Ireland.

Actually the EU side don't see it as a Gordian knot, they want us in the customs union, paying in to the budget, under EU control and without our troublesome veto. And not just the EU side: also the fifth columnists of the SNP, Labour, the LibDems and the whole wailing panoply of the Remoaners, who see no harm in any of the above. But to set our trade policy with the whole of the world on account of a small province would be crazy: it would guarantee Brexit could not succeed. That of course is why Remainers want it. The EU is of course committed to Brexit being seen a failure even if it causes self harm: as I have said previously it is a psycopathic masochist caring not if it harms its own citizens, pour encourager les autres.

Some facts are relevant. 80% of cross border traffic is local, so not relevant to the customs union with the rest of the EU; Northern Ireland's trade with the British mainland is far more important to it than cross border trade with the south; Northern Ireland accounts for a minuscule 3% of UK gdp; the majority of British voters probably don't care too much about the precise future arrangements in Ireland (at least as long as bombs aren't going off on the mainland) and, crucially, Theresa May's government is dependent on the votes of the DUP to fend off an election that could easily lead to the chaos of a quasi-Marxist government supported by the SNP. That's a story line with a lot of potential.

A very cunning plan is needed but, against that background we have agreed to let the Irish tail wag the whole Brexit dog and, as Juliet Samuel put it in the Telegraph* "Because our government is living week to week, like a dog intent only on its next meal, it has allowed itself to be turned round and dragged forwards by the tail." She makes the point that the Irish border question has gone beyond the point at which everyone can be satisfied, so tough choices lie ahead.

The government has been compelled to take tiny steps forward in order to give time at each step for its Euroseptic wing (one 'c' deliberate) to digest and accept the necessary compromises. As a result Brussels always has its next move ready. Even after peace broke out at Chequers, May took over a week to make her speech, by which time Brussels had already, in the old football vernacular, got its retaliation in first by publishing its entirely unacceptable proposals.

I was by no means the only one to predict this, though I did (see my blogs of 17 September  and 8 December). Where we go from here isn't clear. It's like that old joke: "how do we get out of this, Paddy?". "Well, I wouldn't start from here".

Other countries have special arrangements with the EU, in particular Norway and the other EFTA nations. Most roads across the Sweden-Norway border, for example, are not policed. But major commercial traffic has to go via one of a dozen checkpoints with customs officials and police officers. Even though it would leave most locals unaffected, that model would bring back border controls in Ireland, counter to UK and EU promises. Customs checks on the Irish Sea sounds worse. Britain inside the customs union is, for me, a total denial of Brexit. (And would leave me campaigning for a 2nd referendum, "out means out").

There are only 2 options here. The UK convinces the EU that bespoke trade and Irish border treaties are possible or the British government sells out someone: the Unionists, the Brexiteers or the people who regularly go back and forth over the Irish border. Since our negotiating hand is so weak (we are in no position to implement customs controls at short notice, thank you Philip Hammond, treason used to get you put in the Tower)  the deck is stacked against us. The government will get to another crunch, possibly by Easter, when it needs to make progress and, like in December, the dog will need its next meal and will whimper.

The Hotel California Brexit, followed by the return of Nigel Farage and the UKIP phoenix, beckons.

*Juliet Samuel's column "The PM is out of options: however we Brexit someone will be betrayed" (which is somewhat more delicately put than this blog but has the memorable dog by the tail backwards analogy) was in the Daily Telegraph on 5 March 2018.