“But there are a number of obvious difficulties [with a second referendum]. I don’t think we’re going to know what 'out' looks like [until] 2021 at the earliest. And therefore the only point you’ll be able to measure out is in several years’ time, but we will have exited the EU in 2019; and therefore 'in' is no longer an option.”
And they remind us that the still to come Commons vote is essentially academic:
Many trade-related issues will be left open by the time the UK parliament has its "meaningful vote" on Brexit, a euphemism since the real meaningful decision was to trigger Article 50. The vote cannot undo Brexit - all it can do is trigger the nuclear option of a no-deal Brexit.
However, there is still a debate in Labour about what I call the Hotel California (checked out but never leaving, in the single market and customs union) Norway option, with some MPs arguing that, if Labour came out in favour, it would have a majority in the Commons and country. I'm not sure about that and neither is eurointelligence. They recommend that, to understand "the deeper politics" behind Labour's Brexit endorsement, a blog by "working class academic" Lisa McKenzie is helpful**. It summarises a paper she published in the British Journal of Sociology based on extensive research into working class opinion. In it, she noted that people followed the EU debate in much greater detail than is widely acknowledged. And she comments:
"Working-class Leavers were derided as turkeys voting for Christmas, but it is the middle-class Remainers who have been running around like headless chickens since the vote. Like Henny Penny, they think the sky is falling in, but whether the sky falls in or not, Brexit has made a difference to working-class people dubbed ‘the left behind’. They have become visible for the first time in generations, and to some extent feared."
The working class votes for Brexit in the referendum have certainly made the Labour party think hard at every turn about how to hold its constituency together. Their preference to stay at least half way on the fence about what Brexit should look like means that both the major parties are influenced more by holding themselves together and maximising their chances in the next election, even if it means avoiding serious debate on some of the largest issues the country has faced in our lifetimes.
Never mind - the LibDems, bless them, are prepared to say what they mean. Even if it commands next to no support. That is surely what the other parties fear. So we are left with a government and opposition who won't come clean and are both trying hard not to blink first.
That is actually easier for the government as there is no point in them spelling out something that time proves to be impossible to negotiate with the EU. So they keep taking baby steps forward, feeling their way as they go. To be fair, that's probably all they can do. I once asked a boss of mine, who was in the midst of a fiendishly complex company merger negotiation, how you could ever plot your way through it. "You can't" he said. "All you can do is bear in mind where you are trying to get to in the long term and try make progress in the right general direction in the short term." I thought this sounded very wise and pragmatic at the time, though later I thought it risked leaving "showstoppers" to emerge and kill the deal. Which is why, the EU would say, they identified the showstopper issues for resolution first. Except the Irish issue was fudged - d'oh!
P.S. in case you were wondering (ok, I know you weren't) how did my boss's fiendishly complicated negotiation pan out? After more than a year of negotiations, it collapsed, of course. There was some benefit because not only did I get a major chunk of his responsibilities after he left, I was able to sell our chunk of the proposed merged outfit to the other party. However, it took another 18 months as was total pain of a transaction. When I think about my opposite number in the negotiations I empathise with and have significant sympathy for David Davies.... But the good news was that, despite a lot of scepticism, it worked out well for the employees, just as Brexit can work out well for British citizens in our de-merger.
*http://www.eurointelligence.com/public/?t=1&cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email&iid=23d79f1135894c3ea6da6b72ccd8d997&uid=247826759&nid=244+272699400
**Lisa McKenzie's LSE blog is at http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2018/01/16/we-dont-exist-to-them-do-we-why-working-class-people-voted-for-brexit/
You seem to have blessed me Phil, although as an atheist I could take that as an insult:-)
ReplyDeleteStarmer is a fence sitter, Corbyn is a hard Brexiter, both should be ashamed of backing our Bluekip/DUP Government's Brexit process. Call themselves progressives when all they are doing is supporting a process that will make the poor poorer! Cable for Supreme Leader, oh hang on a minute I'm a Liberal I don't believe in Supreme Leaders. Seriously Brexit is the stupidest thing I have ever come across in my 30 plus years in active politics.