So Rene* (well, Donald Tusk actually) visited Downing Street to say - as I predicted - not enough detail yet and not enough progress to broaden the negotiations to include trade. The number of columnists saying that we may have to walk away is steadily increasing.
Meanwhile Keir Starmer and Labour are still also trying to have their cake and eat it. No, Labour does not want to join the EEA, which would involve an official change in the Brexit mandate. Yes, Labour wants the UK to adopt its own immigration regime to protect workers. This version of Brexit will not be on offer by the EU, says a fascinating website I have found, called EuroIntelligence. It's written by Wolfgang Munchau, who writes the European economic column in the FT; Susanne Mundschenk, who studied and was a research fellow in Bonn, was a visiting scholar at the European Institute of the LSE and worked previously at the Association for the Monetary Union of Europe in Paris and Miguel Carrión Álvarez, who writes on macroeconomics, financial instability and EU policy and has a background in financial mathematics, hedge funds and risk analysis at a Eurozone bank. Their article** which derides Labour's policy also opines that the options available to the UK are much narrower than most Brits appear to realise. It describes any transition period - which inevitably must be within full EU rules, so "soft" followed by what must inevitably be a "relatively hard" actual Brexit - as "Brexit postponed", though irreversible by that point.
EuroIntelligence is written from a pro-European perspective and focusses on the Eurozone in particular. There are some fascinating pieces posted recently - sadly, I could read it for hours - on the future of the Eurozone, including the interesting differences of opinion about the way forward between the Germans and French (I've been meaning to write a post on French economics and President Macron's interesting free market initiatives for some time). They also picked up on the report in today's Telegraph that key elements of Theresa May's Florence speech, in particular the phrases relating to Britain’s readiness to honour commitments made during EU membership and the pledge that nobody should pay additional sums as a result of the UK’s decision to leave, had been pre-agreed between UK and EU officials. In effect she took "dictation" from them, says Peter Foster***. Wow - and it still wasn't detailed enough for them. I'm sure they'll want us to be far more submissive before making any movement. What's the equivalent of the Maggie era slogan "Up Yours, Delors?"
* See Don't Walk Away, Renee 17 September. And yes, it is all rather like the 'Allo 'Allo! sitcom at times, isn't it?
**Brexit is a binary choice between EEA or third country status Eurointelligence, 26 Sept 2017
***Theresa May 'took dictation' from EU when she agreed to pay Brexit bill The Telegraph 27 Sept 2017
Phil Brexit was not a 'mandate' it was the result of an advisory referendum.
ReplyDeleteAgreed. I was quoting EuroIntelligence, which is clearly an oxymoron. Either way, Labour's position was described by the Guardian as a U-turn of some magnitude. I would say from one opportunistic incoherent policy to another, but then I can be unkind!
ReplyDeleteCorbyn & May are art one over Brexit except she thinks the EU's a left wing conspiracy and he thinks the EU's a right wing conspiracy!
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