Friday 19 May 2017

Has Theresa May saved the Labour party?

My first reaction when Mrs May called the election was that the reasons for calling it were essentially party political, even though she blamed opposition parties. After all, it looked good timing to increase her majority (David Smith, Sunday Times Economics Editor thinks they hit the sweetest spot in he economic cycle with the economy already slowing) and the LibDems played into her hands by threatening to "grind the business of government to a standstill". But I felt the main reason was to avoid being too much in the control of her euroseptic wing. Not a spelling mistake there by the way: there are eurosceptics, europhobes and the right-wingers who foam at the mouth when Europe is mentioned, hence euroseptics. With a small majority, Mrs May could find herself beholden to them as the negotiations unfold, depending on how reliable Labour MPs proved to be: not a comfortable position to be in. So I felt that, like the referendum itself, the election had been called to resolve an issue within the Tory party.

However, I became pretty much convinced  by the argument the Tories put forward that the election due in 2020 would inevitably influence the closing stages of the Brexit negotiations. It seems to me that would definitely have been the case and, if you were in any doubt, the subsequent leak after the May-Juncker Chequers dinner proved the point.

In passing here I note that I have said several times - e.g. see post of 25 October 2016 (Cold Front at Calais) - that the negotiations will be difficult because it isn't possible to negotiate with a self-harming psychopath. By which I meant that the European project matters more to Brussels than the well being of the people of the EU. Accordingly all the arguments on the lines that "they sell more to us than we sell to them, so they'll want to do a deal"; indeed that "they'll want to sell us their Prosecco" (Boris Johnson) don't hold water because, to Brussels, this isn't the transactional, optimise it for all parties, commercial deal that the Brits would expect to be able to do. By psychopath I was referring to the Brussels eurocracy in general, but now we know he has a name: Martin Selmayr, the Chief Of Staff of the European Commission President. It was Selmayr who was accused of leaking an alternative version of the truth after the dinner, with May portrayed as being in a different galaxy in an attempt to derail the negotiations before they even get going.

The phrase that came out after the Chequers dinner leak was "Brexit cannot be a success". Well, if your view is that Brexit is inevitably a disaster and all parties will be worse off then, in your book, no it can't. I'm sure Selmayr believes that. But, even if it doesn't have to turn out that way, he doesn't want it to be a success as that would potentially lead to other countries leaving, so it mustn't be a success from the point of view of the EU "project", even if EU citizens are worse off. Hence the self harming bit, which we already knew.

The psychopath was revealed by the leak. According to Tim Shipman* May's team seethed for 3 days before they realised Selmayr had presented them with a political opportunity. And one that, counter-productively from Selmayr's point of view, could strengthen the hand of the British negotiators. My reaction when Theresa May gave her press conference lambasting the leak and talking about interference in our election was that she was taking a risk. But I quickly came to the view that it would have been a bigger risk not to speak out. Of course, those wanting to see the negotiations fail were delighted, while also saying that this is no way to negotiate with your closest neighbours. But most divorces end up in an argument about money and access, so why should this one be different? And, if you have to negotiate with a psychopath then some firm tactics will be necessary from time to time.

So I think May was right to call the election and I found most of the criticism, which came from people who said she should have called one as soon as she took over, hypocritical. After all, the electorate have now had a chance to see what she's like in action and have a better idea of who they are being asked to vote for as PM. Be that all as it May, the Tory party seems more united than at any time since the 1980s, albeit fighting on a manifesto that leaves me thinking there is no pro-business**, economically "dry" party standing in this election. Ironically, with Labour at its weakest for 30 years, the manifestos of the three main parties have a rather leftish feel to them, with the Tories promising to intervene on executive pay and energy markets, sensible though that may be depending on how it is done. As a result, the Sunday Times said in its leader last week that the Tories risk winning the war but losing some important battles over free markets and sensible taxation unless the lessons of the Thatcher era (competition is good, markets work, low taxes are essential for prosperity and opportunity) are reinforced. So, given the only question about the election outcome is the size of the Tory majority, the greater interest is what will happen to Labour when internecine war resumes.

Casting our minds back all the way to last summer, a key moment was the legal battle for Jeremy Corbyn to stand for re-election when he was challenged. That battle won, the entryism project to take control of the Labour party seemed well on track. After all, he was otherwise unlikely to find enough moderate stooges to sign his nomination papers again, as happened the first time round. Those stooges, together with Ed Miliband's change to one member, three quid, one vote*** gave the left the opportunity they've been looking for over a very long time. The next step seemed likely to be the de-selection of moderate Labour MPs as parliamentary candidates to give the moderates no way of fighting back. But the election was called before this could happen and the sitting Labour MPs had the chance to stand again. Since Labour's core vote is geographically more concentrated than the Tories or LibDems, almost however hard they get squeezed there will still be a substantial number of Labour MPs. So the next Parliament will be quite like this one in terms of Corbyn being out of step with the majority of his MPs. So, in calling the election when she did, has Theresa May given the Labour moderates the chance to win their party back?

I don't know enough about the way the Labour party works in practice and control of the levers of power in terms of changing the way the leader is selected for example, to answer that question, but I suspect it will not be easy. Indeed, conspiracy theorists have suggested that the Corbynistas aren't bothered if Labour lose a fair number of seats, since Corbyn's supporters generally have the safer seats. If Labour is squeezed down to 150 MPs then Corbyn would have no problem getting the required proportion to nominate him next time round. Hence the suggestion that what Labour is concentrating on in the General Election is maintaining it's core vote. Even a showing as bad as Michael Foot's in 1983 will be dressed up as some kind of success.

In this context their manifesto makes perfect sense. It may not be the longest suicide note in history even if it is certainly a long wish list of unaffordable (yes, we'd all like to spend more on the NHS and education and everything else, but how will it be paid for?), unworkable (sure, raise corporation tax but when it was cut the revenue increased so what do you think will happen? And at a time when we need to keep businesses in this country) and irrelevant (nationalise the railways - oh and no further expansion of driver only operated trains even though they've worked well on some lines for decades but you have to throw some sops to your paymasters) policies. David Smith called it "snake oil that may not make any sense but could be quite popular". Indeed, YouGov say people favour re-nationalisation of the National Grid, railways and Royal Mail 46% to 35% (what - don't they remember how unutterably crap British Rail was? And yes, it was starved of investment but what would happen again under the public sector yoke?); they favour scrapping tuition fees by 49% to 36% (which would mainly benefit the middle classes ironically) and, not surprisingly, they favour higher taxes for those earning more than £80k by 58% to 26. Although more evenly split, many also favour higher corporation tax, which Smith branded "really dumb" in an open world when exiting the EU will magnify the effects on the willingness of businesses to invest and recruit. "At a time when continuing to attract foreign investment will be paramount, erecting a large sign saying 'we will tax you more' conveys the worst possible message." #

But what Smith overlooks is that the Labour manifesto isn't intended win a General Election, but it makes sense against the goals of the entryists. After all, if Labour can just get through this election in one piece, then they can hope that the wheels will come off Brexit, or the economy, or both. Governments always eventually become unpopular. And then who will win the next election? No other party is likely to be in a position to form a government. Having established their credentials with their supporters this time round, the next manifesto could be written with the vagueness that a party ahead in the polls can get away with.

The other point about the Labour manifesto is that some of the people behind it want the economy to crash, to prove capitalism doesn't work. One is John McDonnell of course, whose Who's Who entry (had to think for a moment there!) famously listed his hobby as "fermenting [sic] the overthrow of capitalism". So illiterate as well as economically illiterate then. But, if you don't believe me about entryism, remember Andy Murray. Well actually, not being the tennis player, he's known as Andrew Murray. He's the Chief of Staff of Unite, Len McCluskey's union and was recently seconded in to help with the Labour election campaign. Murray, who's real name is Drummond-Murray, is the son of a titled stockbroker and banker and went to a public school (so a class traitor then, to do a bit of nomenclature appropriation). He joined the Labour party in December last year, having previously been a member of the Communist party, which he joined in 1976. He joined as a teenager, but it took a long time to grow out of it as he was a member for over 40 years. As well as his work as an official  for several trade unions, including at BA where he helped to "ferment" the BA cabin crew strike of 1997, he wrote for the Morning Star and, for 9 years, for the Soviet Novosti news agency##. Murray's hero is clear if you visit his office at Unite - he has a large photo of Lenin on display - and their are few far left causes he has not espoused, declaring "solidarity" with North Korea, praising Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and railing against imperialism. These are the people who are using Corbyn's duffer-like persona to take full control of the Labour party.

So, could the moderates conceivably take back control after a heavy General Election defeat? Has Theresa May saved the Labour party? I personally doubt it. Where are the people who might have had the balls of a Roy Hattersley to stand up against the new militants? Balls shimmied off to Strictly after all. But the other possibility is that a large group of moderate Labour MPs could form their own break away party. Some have already given it a name: the Progressive Party. Some see the hand of Tony Blair behind it. Blair's brand is so tarnished that he would have to stay in the background else any such initiative will be doomed but, if we were talking about a hundred MPs defecting then one could imagine the party having some momentum against Momentum Labour. The formation of the SDP by the gang of four (Owen, Jenkins, Williams and Rodgers) in 1981 showed that a much stronger starting position is needed to break the mould (if you remember that phrase). And we've seen with UKIP's failure how difficult it is to get established in Parliament from a standing start.

Presumably a group of a hundred moderate Labour MPs by another name would become Her Majesty's official Opposition and would get more air time than "Old" Labour. (Sorry, but I'm enjoying playing around with these terms more than I should - it would all be lost on millennials!). So maybe Theresa hasn't saved Labour but, in ensuring the moderates get one more shot at being in Parliament, could prove to be the midwife for the birth of a moderate left of centre opposition that could one day form a government.

Fortune will favour the brave. If some moderates stay and some go they will surely fail. And then I fear that a Corbyn (or worse) led government could just happen, like a slow motion car crash.

I think you can tell that I think the current General Election campaign isn't shaping up to be that interesting or important. But what happens over the next couple of years is going to be fascinating. I'm just not sure I wanted to be part of it.

* Rasputin of Brussels Gets A Taste Of His Own Poison, Sunday Times 7 May 2017
** I mean here pro-business in the sense of supporting growth, employment and the generation of the wealth and taxes that pays for public services.
*** strictly it wasn't one member-one vote as the three quiders were "registered supporters", so not even members
# David Smith, Economic Outlook, Sunday Times 14 May 2017.
##https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Murray_(campaigner_and_journalist)




3 comments:

  1. By gum Phil you covered every angle in this War & Peace like posting. I think the more folk see of May the more they dislike her. She comes across as arrogant and her lack of willingness to debate things in public does her no credit at all. My other feeling is that this election is passing many folks by as they are not much interested in it. Having said that Teresa has spiced things up in the past couple of days with her very illconsidered dementia tax ideas! Has she pushed her luck too far? I would like to think so as a pro-EU Lib Dem.

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