Thursday 6 April 2017

Despite his fall, will Dustin win the Masters?

The Masters starts today and long standing readers will know that, before he went on his run of form taking him to his first Major and world no 1 ranking, I had a hang up about Dustin Johnson's putting. My hang up was that Dustin had a hang up. When I checked his stats just before last year's Masters they revealed his overall average for putts per round ranked very highly - 7th. And he was amongst the best putters on day 1 of a competition, ranked 3rd. But he slipped to ok on day 2 (46th), much the same on day 3 (51st) and relatively poor on day 4 (142nd). Which explained why he didn't win as often as his game seemed to merit.

This time last year Dustin was carrying the load of the current "best player never to win a major", once held by Colin Montgomerie. Monty finished runner up 5 times, famously being prematurely congratulated by Jack Nicklaus "on your first US Open win" at Pebble Beach in 1992, only for Tom Kite, still out on the course, to post the winning score. And most painfully, late in his career at Winged Foot in the 2006 US Open, where he stood for ages over his ball in the middle of the 18th fairway as joint leader with Phil Mickelson and with Mickelson's ball in trouble. In pole position to win, when the green was finally clear he suddenly changed his mind about the club, switching from a six iron to a seven to allow for the effect of adrenaline and then promptly hitting his ball short into tricky rough wide of the green. And with that his final chance slipped away.

Dustin also had his travails, being penalised in the USPGA at Whistling Straits in 2010 for grounding his club in what he hadn't realised was a small shallow bunker, trodden flat by spectators, when he was otherwise on his way to a 3 way play off with Bubba Watson and Martin Kaymer.  And he had a putt to possibly win the US Open at Chambers Bay in 2015 but attacked it, missing the one on the way back as well and so missing out on a play off with Jordan Spieth. True to the pattern of his putting stats, Dustin lead the 2015 Open Championship at St Andrews but had two poor rounds of 75 at the weekend to fall out of contention. That looked as if it would be the prevailing pattern for him.

Johnson's other travails included taking the second half of the 2014 season off to recover from partying too much, or "seek professional help for personal challenges" as it was actually put. Golf Magazine reported he'd tested positive for cocaine, saying it was his third positive test after tests for cannabis in 2009 and cocaine in 2012, but the PGA tour denied he had taken a positive test and said he was on leave of absence and not suspended. I have no particular problem with these recreational drugs which I can't believe would help his game. However, since then he is affectionately known as "cokehead" in our house in order for my wife to be clear precisely which American golfer we are talking about.

Be that as it may, Johnson came back from his break in much the same vein of form as before his break. But last summer something clicked and he's been on a great run of form, winning his first major, the US Open, in June. Though even that was after more controversy, with him being penalised one shot during the final round for his ball moving after he had addressed it on the 5th green. In one of those arcane golf situations, Johnson claimed he hadn't addressed the ball and his playing partners agreed with him. No-one was suggesting that he made the ball move or attempted to gain an advantage and the incident rumbled through the rest of his round, with the PGA deciding to penalise him probably once it was clear he was going to win anyway, which he did by 3 strokes.

Since then Johnson has made history by winning the WGC Matchplay championship, becoming the first player ever, including Tiger Woods, to have won all four of the annual WGC events. He has won his last 3 events in a row, which has taken him to the world number one ranking. And by winning a tour event in February this year he became the only the fourth player to win at least once in his first 10 years on the tour, the others being Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus and Woods. Mind, after 10 years on tour, Palmer had seven majors, Nicklaus nine and Woods twelve.

So what shape is Dustin's game in going into the Masters? Well, out of 238 players, he's ranked 2nd off the tee and 1st tee to green - no great surprise there, they are the strengths of his game. He's 10th on approaches to the green, which I'd wager is a big improvement - he has apparently worked hard on his wedge play. But his putting? Year to date, over 6 tournaments, he seems to have addressed his problem of deterioration through a tournament as he's now ranked 120th for the first round and then 201st, 16th and 199th in the following three. So he seems to have fixed it by "dumbing down" as it were, though putts per round is a blunt measure and on the Strokes Gained stat (which compares his performance to the average for all players in a tournament) he ranks quite highly at 29th. So he's in great shape.

Mind, I've never envied Dustin's putting, though I was heard to say 3 years ago while at the Open at Hoylake that if I could have the swing of any current professional player, it would be Dustin's. I've always admired and envied his almost languid and apparently effortless swing, which is remarkably long and straight off the tee. And like Dustin, I've also had to take a break from golf for medical reasons, though in my case a bad back. After 3 months out I've played 6 holes and then another 9 trying it out. The back is still a bit dodgy but the surprising thing was my game - 6 shots  better than my handicap and no dropped shots at all in 15 holes, without any practice, which I thought would put more strain on the back than playing. I have attributed the reason to having an "empty mind", which I've read is essential for good golf. In particular, no traumas from missed putts or bad shots on particular holes in recent times to stew over and no expectations of playing any holes well or badly. But, while I envy Dustin his golf swing, I don't envy his brain because, pleasant bloke though he is, anyone who has seen one of his interviews will know that Dustin, bless him, has a fairly empty mind. Not only that, he managed to fall down the stairs in his rented house last night and is on medication (anti-inflammatories rather than suspect painkillers one hopes) and ice before the first round. But I hope he does well at Augusta, even if I'm shouting for the record contingent of English golfers this year at Augusta.

Post script: Dustin had to pull out with his back injury. That's the problem with the "empty mind" approach, you see - you can generally allow the subconscious part of your brain, that does after all control your motor functions without you having to think about it, to walk you down the stairs or putt the golf ball. But sometimes you fall over or miss and then you start to think......

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