I said in my post LIV and let live? (11 May) "the LIV golfers are likely to stay in semi-exile for a good while yet, playing in their closed events". My crystal ball was utterly flawed as, within a month, LIV and the two major world tours - the US PGA Tour and the DP World Tour (which is what the European tour calls itself these days) announced they were to merge on terms not yet published if, indeed they are even actually agreed in more than vague terms.
It dawned on me pretty promptly that, of course, it's all about money. If the PGA Tour thought that, whatever happens in the legal cases they seemed to be winning, they would inevitably eventually be outspent and steamrollered financially then they'll have decided they didn't have deep enough pockets to compete.
I was beaten to this analysis by many months it seems. At LIV's event in Miami last October Donald Trump (yes, him) leant over the fairway rope to offer the most concise explanation as to why Saudi Arabia's incursion into golf would end in victory. "Unlimited money" he said. "Ultimately something gets worked out". That may be one of the few things he's ever got right (though he was definitely right about the risks to the world order from China too).
So I'm left feeling I got that one wrong, though at least that's probably better than how Rory McIlroy may have been feeling, having been so outspoken in defending the PGA Tour and attacking LIV. He and many other golfers may be wondering "why didn't I just take the Saudi shilling?"
As I said, though, the details of the merger haven't been revealed and probably not even worked out yet. It's all probably still at the heads of terms stage, which is often the type of "agreement to agree" that I was warned off by many a savvy commercial manager in business. According to Golf Digest the peace deal between the PGA Tour and the Saudi Public Investment Fund calls for an agreement to be completed by the end of the year. But the litigation has been dropped and apparently 'cannot be reopened'. I find that odd as I thought you could always go to court, it would just be a new case.
There is obviously scope for the parties to fall out, or just fail to agree. Except it does seem that PIF has the PGA Tour by the short and curlies: the PGA Tour apparently felt that it could stave off LIV for a while but within five years they would be "hollowed out" presumably as more and more of its star players decamped to LIV.
But there could be other obstacles. Golf Digest also reported that the US Senate has opened an investigation into the pending deal, citing that the alliance “raises concerns about the Saudi government’s role in influencing this effort and the risks posed by a foreign government entity assuming control over a cherished American institution.” They also said the deal could be reviewed by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, which analyses mergers regarding potential threats to the nation’s security. And the tour continues to be under an antitrust probe by the US Deparment of Justice and PIF’s investment into the tour is expected to fall under this investigation.
All of which is secondary to me to the key question - will the new arrangements really be open to all to earn a place in and so be properly competitive? I hope and expect the answer to that will be "yes" with the LIV events becoming a tour within a tour which players earn the right to compete in by virtue of performance, though I'd expect some "sponsor's invitations" (so, for example, Tiger could play in them if fit). As long as a a young golfer can realistically play his way into the events I can accept that, it's no different than qualifying for the PGA Tour's end of season FedEx cup events.
One can expect that some of the "LIV" events will be held outside the USA and at least one in Saudi Arabia.
The PGA Tour will want to ensure that enough big names still play in enough of their mainstream tour events in addition to the majors and the WGC and FedEx events. In order to fit everything in to the calendar the latter two concepts might well be merged in with what were going to be LIV events in some way. And it looks like the team element of LIV might be maintained, though I find that very artificial compared with the nation based Ryder and President's Cups.
There would appear to be plenty of scope then to reach agreement, probably including some "compensation" for those like McIlroy that held firm and would otherwise lose out financially (poor rich dears) compared with the defectors. (To be fair a number of less wealthy players kept faith with the PGA Tour as well as the likes of McIlroy, Rahm, Justin Thomas and Tiger himself).
One is left wondering what the implications of all this will be for the world of sport in general, not just golf.
The Sunday Times took a look and predicted that the Saudis will push hard to get a FIFA World Cup and that the HQs of some sports would eventually be located in Riyadh albeit, they suggested, by 2050. That's a long way off and past when I'll be too concerned, probably fortunately.
It also makes me feel that the reason the Saudis targeted golf was that the sport's structure, with freelance individual players, made it a practicable target compared with, say, football, with its strong national and regional basis. Anyway, in football it's already been established that money can buy influence, as shown by the last world cup being in Qatar.
The first stage of the Saudi football plan seems to be to build a strong enough domestic league with imported players and managers, a process now apparently very much underway with Neves, Benzema and Firmino signing to play in their league and Steven Gerrard taking a club manger's job there. The next stage might be to hijack the world club championship if they can't get the UEFA Champions League broadened to include them.
Unlimited money said Trump. At least till the oil runs out, or people stop needing to buy it. Human rights? Forget it. Live and let die, Mr Bond. This ain't sportswashing folks. This is sports domination.
Golf Digest, 16 June 2023. PGA Tour, LIV Golf formally drop antitrust lawsuits, ending a year of legal battle
Gulf Wars: how the Middle East superpowers have taken over sport - and where will it end? Sunday Times 25 June 2023
